Europe’s Migration Numbers Are Falling — But the Story Is More Complex
Irregular migration to Europe has declined for the third consecutive year. Frontex’s Annual Brief 2025 records 177,766 detections of illegal border crossings at the EU’s external borders — a 26% drop from 2024 and 53% below the 2023 peak of 381,372. UNHCR data mirrors this trajectory: sea arrivals to Europe fell from 263,000 in 2023 to 145,000 in 2025. Asylum applications across the EU-27 declined 13.2% in 2024 to 925,315 (Eurostat).
Yet the aggregate decline masks structural shifts. The collapse in Syrian arrivals following the fall of the Assad regime accounts for over half of the decrease. Meanwhile, East African nationalities — Eritreans, Somalis, Sudanese — are surging through Libya. The Western Mediterranean is the only route posting increases. And despite improvements, the EU still returns fewer than one in four of those issued departure orders.
This briefing draws on PRISM’s integrated data infrastructure — cross-referencing Frontex operational data, UNHCR arrival statistics, and Eurostat enforcement and asylum datasets — to provide a comprehensive statistical landscape of EU migration governance across 2023–2025.
The Three-Year Decline: 381K to 178K
Detections of illegal border crossings on entry at the EU’s external borders peaked at 381,372 in 2023, then fell sharply to 240,205 in 2024 (−37%) and further to an estimated 177,766 in 2025 (−26%). This represents the steepest sustained decline since the post-2015 normalisation, bringing numbers to their lowest level since 2020 while still exceeding the pre-pandemic totals of 2018–2019 (Frontex Annual Brief 2025).
The expansion of EU migration partnerships with key countries of origin and transit has contributed to the decline. However, as Frontex notes, successful cooperation in one departure country leads to smuggling adaptation and relocation of departure points to other jurisdictions — a pattern visible in the shift from Tunisia to Libya on the Central Mediterranean route.
UNHCR sea arrival data corroborates the declining trend, recording 144,854 sea arrivals to Europe in 2025, down from 188,988 in 2024 and 263,048 in 2023. The convergence of these independent data sources strengthens the finding: irregular arrivals to Europe have halved in three years.
Geographic Shifts: One Route Rises as Six Decline
Of the seven main migratory routes monitored by Frontex, only the Western Mediterranean saw an increase in 2025 (+11% to 18,946). All others declined, with the Western African route collapsing 63% to just 17,280 detections — a dramatic reversal from its rapid expansion in 2023–2024.
The Central Mediterranean remained the busiest route at 66,328 detections, essentially flat compared to 2024 (−1%). But beneath this stability lies a major geographic shift: departures from Tunisia plunged 75%, while those from Libya surged 38%, with nearly 16,000 additional detections. The Eastern Mediterranean dropped 27% to 51,399, driven almost entirely by the collapse in Syrian arrivals. The Western Balkan route continued its post-2023 freefall, declining 42% to 12,525.
| Route | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Change (2024–25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Mediterranean | 158,026 | 66,855 | 66,328 | −1% |
| Eastern Mediterranean | 61,234 | 69,954 | 51,399 | −27% |
| Western Mediterranean | 16,877 | 17,059 | 18,946 | +11% |
| Western African | 39,673 | 46,820 | 17,280 | −63% |
| Western Balkan | 99,041 | 21,637 | 12,525 | −42% |
| Eastern Borders | 5,824 | 17,330 | 10,846 | −37% |
| Other routes | 697 | 550 | 442 | −20% |
| Total EU | 381,372 | 240,205 | 177,766 | −26% |
UNHCR Data: Divergent Trends Across the Mediterranean
UNHCR sea and land arrival data reveals starkly different trajectories across Mediterranean destinations. Spain is the only country showing a consistent upward trend, with arrivals rising from 17,208 in 2023 to 18,987 in 2025 (+8.7%). Greece spiked to 62,119 in 2024 before falling back to 48,771 in 2025 (−21.5%). Cyprus saw the most dramatic change: a 60% collapse in arrivals, from 6,097 in 2024 to just 2,442 in 2025.
The Syria Effect and the East Africa Surge
The single largest factor behind the 2025 decline is the dramatic fall in Syrian arrivals. In 2024, 46,000 Syrians were detected crossing EU borders irregularly. In 2025, that number plummeted to just 5,900 — a drop that accounts for over half of the total decrease across all EU borders. UNHCR estimates that by late November 2025, over 1.2 million Syrians had returned home from neighbouring countries since the fall of the Assad regime (Frontex).
Conversely, three East African nationalities bucked the trend with sharp increases. Eritreans surged 250% to approximately 7,500 detections. Somalis grew more than fivefold to around 3,500. Sudanese nearly doubled (+95%) to over 4,000. These increases are channelled primarily through Libya, reflecting displacement from the Horn of Africa. For Sudan, the 467,000 new arrivals in Libya reported by UNHCR underscore that border detections capture only a fraction of the displacement.
The Return Gap: From Detection to Departure
The EU’s enforcement pipeline — from detecting irregular presence to issuing departure orders to executing returns — reveals persistent structural gaps. In 2024, 841,425 third-country nationals were found to be illegally present across the EU-27, down 29.5% from 1.19 million in 2023 (Eurostat). Of these, 433,425 were ordered to leave — an order rate of 51.5%, up significantly from 38.4% in 2023.
But the critical bottleneck remains at the return stage. Only 106,620 individuals were actually returned following an order to leave — a return rate of just 24.6%. While this represents an improvement from 19.0% in 2023 and a 22.8% increase in absolute numbers, it means that three out of four departure orders go unexecuted. The gap between policy intent and operational reality remains the defining challenge of EU return governance.
Member State Variation
Return effectiveness varies dramatically across member states. Germany returned 18,695 individuals in 2024 (up 81.7% from 2023) but this represents just 32.7% of orders issued. France, the largest issuer of departure orders at 128,740, returned only 14,670 — a return rate of 11.4%. Sweden, by contrast, achieved one of the highest return rates in the EU, returning 10,155 against 10,020 orders — a nominal rate above 100%, reflecting execution of orders from prior years.
| Member State | Illegally Present | Ordered to Leave | Returned | Return Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 249,155 | 57,075 | 18,695 | 32.7% |
| France | 142,190 | 128,740 | 14,670 | 11.4% |
| Italy | 108,925 | 35,585 | 5,645 | 15.9% |
| Spain | 78,155 | 62,930 | 8,815 | 14.0% |
| Greece | 68,155 | 42,405 | 7,050 | 16.6% |
| Sweden | 17,420 | 10,020 | 10,155 | 101.3% |
| EU-27 Total | 841,425 | 433,425 | 106,620 | 24.6% |
Asylum Applications: Declining Volume, Shifting Composition
Total asylum applications across the EU-27 fell 13.2% in 2024 to 925,315, down from 1,066,635 in 2023 (Eurostat). First-time applications dropped 14.9% to 844,215, while subsequent applications rose 13.8% to 79,525 — suggesting that a growing share of the asylum caseload involves repeat applicants seeking protection in different member states.
Germany remained the top receiving country at 250,615 applications (27.1% of the EU total), followed by Spain (167,750), Italy (158,605), and France (157,550). Syrians filed the most applications at 131,325, followed by Venezuelans (73,835) and Afghans (65,335). Notably, Ukrainian asylum applications nearly doubled (+96.7%) as some displaced Ukrainians transitioned from temporary protection to the standard asylum procedure.
Top Nationalities Filing Asylum Applications (2024)
A Pivotal Year for European Border Management
2026 will be a defining year for the EU’s migration and asylum architecture. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum becomes fully applicable from June 2026, introducing mandatory solidarity mechanisms, accelerated border procedures, and strengthened return provisions. The Entry/Exit System (EES) will roll out, followed by the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) in Q4 2026 — the most significant technological overhaul of EU border infrastructure in decades.
On the migration front, Frontex assesses that irregular arrivals could continue declining absent a major geopolitical escalation, given the deepening of migration partnerships with key countries. However, the agency cautions that smuggling networks will adapt — departure areas towards the Canary Islands may shift further south in West Africa, fuelled by the spread of instability in the Sahel where “ruling regimes, backed by Russian mercenaries, are losing ground to jihadist insurgencies.”
- EU Pact implementation (June 2026): Mandatory solidarity, border procedures, and screening regulations become operational across all member states.
- EES/ETIAS launch: Full digitalisation of entry/exit tracking for third-country nationals at EU external borders.
- Syria returns: UNHCR reported 1.2 million Syrian returns by November 2025. The trajectory of these returns will significantly shape 2026 asylum and border figures.
- Horn of Africa corridor: Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia displacement flows through Libya are likely to intensify as conflicts continue.
- Sahel instability: Jihadist expansion in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger may push departure points further south on the West African route.