Methodology

How PRISM actually assembles the picture.

A short, honest account of where the numbers come from, how often they refresh, which canonical scores PRISM relies on, and the caveats that come with each.

01 · Architecture

Persistent disk, accumulating archive, computed headlines.

PRISM is not a snapshot. It's a live instrument that pulls from authoritative APIs on schedules ranging from quarter-hourly to daily, persists every pull to disk, and computes the country-level headlines on demand from the most recent reconciled records.

Architecturally the platform rests on four pillars. None of them are clever; together they make the difference between a dashboard you trust and a dashboard you have to second-guess.

PILLAR 01

Persistent SQLite, WAL mode.

Every long-running data source — ReliefWeb, ACLED, IOM DTM, IDMC, OECD DAC, ACAPS, the FTS funding cache — has its own SQLite database on a persistent disk. Concurrent reads stay fast; writes don't block dashboards.

PILLAR 02

One snapshot, committed.

A single Excel data_store snapshot acts as the canonical baseline for cross-source joins. Every API pull layers on top, never replacing ground truth without an explicit refresh cycle.

PILLAR 03

Accumulating archives.

Daily ReliefWeb pulls do not overwrite — they accumulate. The archive grows by ~30 reports a day across the 74 HPC HNO countries, with full provenance, retraction handling and admin moderation.

PILLAR 04

Headlines computed, not stored.

Country headlines (PiN, funding coverage, severity classifications) are recomputed at request time from the latest reconciled records. There are no stale precomputed figures sitting in the page — only canonical sources resolved live.

02 · Scope

74 HPC HNO countries, anchored to ISO-3.

The canonical scope is the OCHA Humanitarian Programme Cycle's HNO country list — the 74 operations with a Humanitarian Needs Overview in the current cycle. Several datasets reach further (climate, ODA, EU migration), and PRISM exposes that wider coverage where it adds analytical value.

Country identity is reconciled to ISO-3166-1 alpha-3 codes on ingestion. The 74-country scope is hard-coded in the data processors so the daily refresh runs the same surface every cycle, regardless of which agencies happened to publish that day. Datasets with broader native coverage (OECD DAC's 33-donor universe, ACLED's 198-country event archive, Copernicus' global ERA5 reanalysis, IDMC's 200+ country displacement database) are kept at their native resolution and joined on request.

This methodology covers the public analytics layer. Project-level field data is handled separately by PRISM Project, which anonymises records on ingest, encrypts them end to end, and keeps each project private to its assigned team. Only aggregate, anonymised findings are surfaced.

03 · Refresh cadence

When each layer of the picture updates.

Cadence varies by source. The table below is the operational schedule — what PRISM actually pulls, and how often.

Cycle
What refreshes
Source class
15 min
GDACS live alerts; OCHA HPC headline figures (per-plan coverage).
LIVE
Hourly
FTS funding flows (donor, cluster, country); NASA FIRMS active fires.
LIVE
4–12 h
ACAPS Protection Risks + Access Constraints; IOM DTM displacement.
LIVE
Daily
ReliefWeb /v2/reports per-country sync; ACLED open-tier event aggregates.
LIVE
Weekly
IDMC preliminary IDU events; LLM situation summaries for each of the 74 countries.
LIVE
Monthly
ASAP food-security hotspots; UNICEF SDMX child-wellbeing indicators; IPC / CH acute food insecurity (current and projection periods).
CYCLE
Quarterly
Eurostat EU-27 enforcement statistics; CBPF allocation flows.
CYCLE
Annual
OECD DAC ODA; IDMC validated stocks; EM-DAT historical events; GHO appeal launch.
CYCLE
On publication
JRC INFORM Risk & Severity; GPC PAF protection severity; OCHA HNO/HRP releases.
SNAPSHOT
04 · Data sources

The twelve sources that drive the dashboards.

Of the 40+ datasets PRISM ingests, twelve carry the analytic weight on the country pages. Each card lists the issuing institution, refresh class, contribution and an honest caveat. The remainder are summarised below.

OCHA HPC.tools
UN OCHA · api.hpc.tools
Live
Cycle · HRP / HNO / RRP 220+ plans (2024–2026)

The canonical source for People in Need, plan requirements and cluster/AoR funding. Drives the headline figures across every country profile.

PiN figures shift between draft, final and revised HNO snapshots; PRISM uses the most-recent published value.

FTS
OCHA Financial Tracking Service
Live
Hourly Donor / cluster / country

Reported funding flows for every appeal. Per-donor explore views match FTS published totals exactly — same donor names, same currencies, same scope rules.

FTS captures reported, not actual, disbursements; late or unreported flows can shift coverage by several points.

ReliefWeb /v2/reports
UN OCHA ReliefWeb
Live
Daily sync 74 countries Accumulating archive

Situation reports, press releases, assessments and analyses from humanitarian organisations. The archive (~3,100 reports, growing daily) is the substrate for full-text search and the weekly LLM situation summaries.

Coverage depth varies by country; well-covered crises generate more reports than equally severe but under-reported ones.

ACLED
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
Live
Open-tier downloads + CAST forecast API 1997–present 198 countries

Monthly political-violence and civilian-targeting event counts, with fatalities. Admin-1 / Admin-2 resolution for HRP countries; trend lines for all.

Open-tier counts are aggregated, not event-level; event detail requires ACLED's research-tier subscription.

IDMC
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
Live
Annual validated + 180-day IDU events 200+ countries

Validated annual stocks (people displaced at year-end) plus preliminary event-level Internal Displacement Updates from the last 180 days. PRISM keeps stock and new-displacement metrics rigorously separate — they cannot be summed.

Recent-event figures are preliminary; reconciled annual totals supersede them.

ACAPS Protection Risks Monitor
ACAPS
Live
12 h sync 15 risk categories 24-month rolling window

Live protection-event monitoring: abduction, attacks on civilians, GBV, forced displacement and 11 more categories. Each event carries a justification and attribution. Country pages show the three most recent; full lists are CSV-exportable.

ACAPS coverage depends on field-network presence; absence of events in a country is not absence of risk.

ACAPS INFORM Severity
ACAPS / INFORM
Snapshot
Quarterly updates Index + category

Composite humanitarian-severity classification per country (Very low → Very high) combining impact of the crisis, conditions of affected people and complexity. Used as a canonical severity tag, not blended with other scores.

Severity moves slowly; sudden-onset events may not appear until the next quarterly update.

JRC INFORM Risk
European Commission JRC · DRMKC
Snapshot
Annual release Risk index 0–10

Composite of hazard exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity. PRISM surfaces the index and the three constituent dimensions side by side so users see what's driving the score, not just the headline.

A forward-looking risk score, not a real-time severity indicator; cross-reference INFORM Severity for current conditions.

IOM DTM
International Organization for Migration · Displacement Tracking Matrix
Live
Subscription API Sub-national resolution

Internal-displacement totals by cause and by sub-national admin-1, where DTM is operational. Complements IDMC's stock view with operational granularity at the sub-country level.

Coverage is operation-dependent; some countries with active displacement have no DTM presence.

OECD DAC
OECD Development Assistance Committee
Annual
33 donor countries ODA volume + ODA/GNI

Official Development Assistance — $174B+ across the DAC universe (2025 preliminary). The "Rise and Fall" view plots per-donor ODA volume, year-over-year change and the ODA/GNI ratio against the 0.7% UN target.

DAC reporting lags by one year; "preliminary" figures are revised in the spring of the following year.

EM-DAT
CRED · Université catholique de Louvain
Historical
6,413 events 2000–2025

Authoritative historical disaster archive. PRISM uses EM-DAT for the long-run climate and disaster lens — affected populations by year, butterfly breakdowns by disaster type, and CSV export for downstream analysis.

EM-DAT requires events to meet inclusion thresholds (≥10 deaths, ≥100 affected, declaration of emergency, or call for international assistance).

GPC PAF
Global Protection Cluster · Protection Analytical Framework
Snapshot
Periodic releases Severity 0–5 by risk & country

Systematic protection-severity scoring across protection risks and countries. Powers PRISM's dedicated Protection Severity page; complementary to ACAPS's event-level view.

Severity scoring reflects validated cluster assessments; not all 74 HPC countries are scored in every release.

Also ingested

Beyond the twelve sources above, PRISM ingests the following without dedicated editorial framing — they appear inside thematic pages, deep dives or country profiles where they're relevant.

  • UNHCR refugee & asylum aggregates
  • UNICEF SDMX child-wellbeing
  • IPC / CH acute food insecurity (live, national and sub-national)
  • ASAP food-security hotspots
  • CERF allocations
  • CBPF country-based pooled funds
  • HDX HAPI rainfall
  • Copernicus ERA5 climate reanalysis
  • NASA FIRMS active fires
  • GDACS live disaster events
  • ReliefWeb declared-disaster feed
  • World Bank development indicators
  • EU MigFund (2000–2020)
  • EU NDICI (2021–2023)
  • Eurostat EU-27 enforcement
  • FTS MPCA cluster data
  • ICVA humanitarian pooled-funds mapping (90+ active funds)
  • ODI HPG — funding to local & national actors (LNA flows, two 2026 reports)
  • Alternative resourcing models for CSOs (desk review)
  • Climate-vulnerability indicators (32 across 194 countries)
05 · Scoring & severity

PRISM does not mint a composite score.

Every country page surfaces canonical scores from their issuing institutions — INFORM Risk and Severity from the JRC and ACAPS, IPC phase classification from the IPC Global Support Unit, protection severity from the GPC. PRISM does not aggregate them into a single index.

This is deliberate. Composite scores hide their assumptions; users see a number, not the trade-off behind it. PRISM's editorial line is to keep the canonical scores side by side — INFORM Severity next to INFORM Risk next to IPC Phase 3+ population next to ACAPS Access Constraints — and let users see the disagreements between them rather than averaging them away.

Where a single picture is genuinely useful — the country-profile snapshot tab — the composite is built on demand from the constituent scores, with the contribution of each clearly attributed in the UI. There is no PRISM Score that exists outside the canonical inputs that produced it.

06 · Caveats

Five honest limitations.

A platform that integrates 50+ sources will inherit every limitation of every one of them. The five below are the ones most likely to matter when you're interpreting a number on a PRISM page.

  1. Reported is not actual. Funding figures from FTS — and most donor statistics — reflect what's been reported, not what's been disbursed. Late or unreported flows can shift coverage by several points in either direction.
  2. Coverage depth ≠ severity. ReliefWeb, ACAPS and ACLED all depend on field-network presence. Well-covered crises (Syria, Yemen, Sudan) generate dense data streams; less-covered but equally severe crises generate sparse ones. Absence of data is not evidence of absence of need.
  3. Stock and flow are different metrics. Displacement, in particular, is reported as both. People still displaced at year-end (stock) and movements during the year (new displacements) cannot be summed. PRISM keeps them visually separate everywhere they appear.
  4. Severity scales move slowly. INFORM Severity updates quarterly; INFORM Risk updates annually; IPC updates per analytical cycle. Sudden-onset events may not be reflected for weeks. Cross-reference with ReliefWeb's live archive and ACAPS event monitoring for fast-moving situations.
  5. LLM summaries are framing, not citation. The weekly per-country summary on each country page is generated by Claude Sonnet 4.5 from the most recent ReliefWeb reports archived for that country. It's an editorial digest, not an independent source. The reports it draws from are the citation; the summary is a way in.
07 · Reproducibility

Open licence, traceable provenance.

PRISM is released under CC BY-SA 4.0. Charts, deep-dive analyses and derived figures may be reused and adapted with attribution; downstream work must carry the same licence. Underlying datasets retain the licences of their issuing institutions — a chart of OECD DAC ODA is CC BY-SA when published in PRISM, but the source data is governed by the OECD's terms of use.

Provenance for every published figure is traceable to a named, dated source on the page where it appears. The methodology log behind any specific number is one click away — cards link to the issuing API, badges identify the data class (Live / Snapshot / Cycle), and timestamps record the last successful refresh.

Editor's note

The methodology is part of the politics.

PRISM exists because humanitarian decision-making deserves better than fragmented dashboards and one-source narratives. But the platform also reflects on its own embeddedness in the data architectures it analyses. The categories — who counts as 'refugee' versus 'migrant', what constitutes 'protection risk', which actors produce 'legitimate' knowledge — are not neutral inputs. Surfacing canonical scores side by side, and refusing to flatten them into a single composite, is itself a methodological choice with political consequences.

Every number on this platform is as reliable as the source it came from, no more and no less. PRISM surfaces the disagreements between sources rather than averaging them away.

Questions, corrections, or a source PRISM should ingest? [email protected].

08 · AI & oversight

Where AI is used — and where it is not.

PRISM uses large language models in four narrow, disclosed places. None of them produces a number. The platform is fully functional with the models switched off, and every AI-assisted output is grounded in data PRISM already holds.

  1. Country situation summaries. The short briefing at the top of each country page is generated from the most recent ReliefWeb reports in PRISM's own accumulating archive — the model summarises documents it is given, it does not search the open web. Summaries are labelled as such in the interface, regenerate only when new reports arrive (or after seven days), and the underlying reports remain the citation (see caveat five, above).
  2. Dashboard layout design in PRISM Project. When a partner uploads a dataset, a model proposes the dashboard layout from the workbook's schema and aggregate profile. It never sees raw rows; the deterministic rendering engine draws every chart locally from the data itself.
  3. Editorial drafting assistance. Deep dives and situation updates are drafted with AI assistance under a fixed editorial specification, then verified by the chief editor: every figure is traced to a named, dated source before publication, estimates are labelled as estimates, and provisional numbers are flagged as provisional.
  4. PRISM Analyst. The analytical assistant (available to registered users) answers questions by issuing read-only queries against PRISM's own datasets and archives. The model never generates or recalls a figure: numbers exist in an answer only if a data query returned them, every claim is cited, and each answer ends with the exact queries that produced it, so results are reproducible. Where the data cannot support an answer, the Analyst says so.

The bright line: no quantitative figure on PRISM is generated or modified by a language model. Every number flows deterministically from the issuing API or dataset through open-source processing code to the chart that displays it. Where a model is unavailable, the platform degrades gracefully — the summary block is simply absent, and everything else renders unchanged.

09 · Governance

A named editor, an accountable process.

PRISM is created and edited by Umutcan Yüksel and began, in October 2025, as a research project under the Policy Leader Fellowship at the School of Transnational Governance, European University Institute. It is owned and operated by Integrity Consulting and published as a free, open-access platform. The editor's full profile is on the about page (ORCID 0000-0002-3565-3568); editorial correspondence goes to [email protected].

Editorial standards. Every published figure carries a named, dated source. Estimates and modelled ranges are labelled as such; provisional figures are flagged and revised as sources consolidate. Analysis of ongoing crises follows a fixed editorial specification covering sourcing, tone and sensitivity.

Corrections. Errors are corrected in place as soon as they are established, and material corrections are noted on the affected page. Anyone can flag an error at [email protected].

Independence and funding. PRISM is self-funded through Integrity Consulting. It accepts no donor funding, carries no advertising, and has no institutional stake in the crises it monitors. Source data is used under the terms of the originating agencies, and access to the platform is free.

Methodology v4.2 · last reviewed 4 July 2026 · maintained by the chief editor

10 · Research & citation

Built to be cited.

PRISM data and analysis already anchor peer-reviewed and institutional research. The platform is designed for citation: stable URLs, per-dataset citation guidance, and machine-readable provenance on every page.

Publications built on PRISM data:

  1. Yüksel, U. (2026). Humanitarian funding cuts: power, prioritisation, and systemic injustice in global humanitarian aid. European University Institute, School of Transnational Governance.
  2. Yüksel, U. & Bisong, A. (2026). Does spending money on returning migrants work? Evidence from Africa and the Middle East. European University Institute, School of Transnational Governance.
  3. Yüksel, U. & Bisong, A. (2026). Europe is spending billions on deporting migrants. Why the strategy isn't working. The Conversation, 2 June 2026.

Citing PRISM. For the platform: PRISM (2026). Protection, Risk & Impact Severity Monitor. https://www.prismonitor.eu — each dataset in the data catalogue carries its own suggested citation with attribution to the originating agencies, and every deep dive is citable via its stable URL, publication date and author metadata.