fatalities
(IDPs + refugees)
(IPC Phase 3+)
received
Sudan's war has now passed 1,000 days. What began as a power struggle between two generals in Khartoum in April 2023 has metastasised into the world's worst humanitarian crisis — surpassing Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan on virtually every severity metric. An estimated 33.7 million people need humanitarian assistance. Famine has been confirmed in multiple locations. The health system has collapsed. And the international response is falling catastrophically short.
The numbers are staggering by any standard: at least 30,813 documented conflict fatalities, with indirect mortality estimates ranging to 150,000+. Nearly 13 million people displaced — one in three Sudanese. Over 21 million acutely food insecure, with 375,000 in famine conditions. The 2025 humanitarian response plan was funded at just 41.9%, and the 2026 plan has received only 6.6% of its $2.87 billion requirement as of early February.
This situation update draws on PRISM's multi-source data integration — ACLED conflict tracking, IPC food security analysis, OCHA financial flows, INFORM risk and severity indices, Eurostat migration data, and WHO health surveillance — to present a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of the crisis as it enters its third year.
1,000 Days of War: Political Violence at Extreme Levels
The ACLED Conflict Index classifies Sudan as “Extreme”, ranking 8th globally overall but 2nd in deadliness with 19,655 recorded fatalities in 2025 alone. Political violence events exploded from 461 in 2019 to 5,958 at the 2024 peak — a thirteen-fold increase. The slight decline to 3,897 events in 2025 reflects not de-escalation but a geographic concentration of fighting in Darfur and the Kordofan corridor.
The conflict involves 38 distinct armed factions, far beyond the SAF-RSF binary. In Darfur, the RSF and allied Arab militias have carried out systematic atrocities against the Masalit and other non-Arab communities — actions that the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission has described as bearing hallmarks of genocide. The fall of El Fasher on 26 October 2025, after an 18-month siege, triggered mass atrocities and a catastrophic humanitarian collapse in North Darfur.
Aid Worker Security
Between 2023 and 2025, 134 security incidents affecting aid workers were recorded, resulting in 121 killed, 63 wounded, and 38 kidnapped. Aid worker deaths nearly tripled from 25 in 2023 to 60 in 2024. The primary attack methods are shooting (46 incidents), shelling (23), and kidnapping (23). Khartoum accounts for 40% of all incidents.
The World's Largest Displacement Crisis
Nearly one in three Sudanese has been forced to flee. Approximately 9.33 million are displaced internally and 2.7 million have crossed into neighbouring countries — a total of roughly 12–13.6 million people. New conflict-related displacement in 2024 alone reached 3.78 million, with an additional 200,000 displaced by disasters. Among the displaced, 52% are children and 43% are women.
The conflict has also driven irregular migration toward Europe. Sudanese nationals found illegally present in the EU nearly doubled from 7,285 in 2021 to 11,945 by 2023. Returns have effectively ceased: the return rate collapsed from 4.4% to 1.2% — reflecting the impossibility of returning people to an active conflict zone.
Famine Confirmed: 21.2 Million Acutely Food Insecure
Sudan faces the world's worst food crisis. The November 2025 IPC analysis confirmed famine (Phase 5) in El Fasher (North Darfur) with Global Acute Malnutrition rates of 38–75%, and in Kadugli (South Kordofan) with a GAM rate of 29%. A further 20 areas are at risk of famine across Darfur and Kordofan. An estimated 4.2 million cases of acute malnutrition are projected for 2026, including 800,000+ cases of severe acute malnutrition.
Sudan has been classified as a “Major Hotspot” — the highest severity level — in the ASAP food security monitoring system for 26 consecutive months, the longest sustained food crisis alert on record.
43.8 Million People Exposed to Protection Threats
The Protection Cluster estimates 43.8 million people face protection risks — effectively the entire population. The humanitarian access score is 5 out of 5 (worst possible), with 198 access denials recorded in the first half of 2025 alone. Of 15 protection risk categories monitored by ACAPS, 10 are rated at severity 4 or above (“Very High”).
Attacks on civilians and unlawful killings dominate the incident database with 97 recorded events, followed by gender-based violence (38) and abduction/kidnapping (23). Conflict-related sexual violence has reached epidemic proportions: at least 330 documented cases were reported by UN experts in May 2025, with actual figures believed to be far higher.
201 Attacks on Healthcare, 1,858 Killed
Sudan's health system has effectively collapsed. An estimated 37% of health facilities are non-functional nationwide. WHO has verified 201 attacks on healthcare since April 2023, resulting in 1,858 deaths and 490 injuries. In the first six months of 2025 alone, at least 933 people were killed in 38+ attacks — nearly 60 times the figure for the same period in 2024. Sudan now accounts for the largest share of global deaths linked to attacks on healthcare.
Disease outbreaks compound the crisis: cholera has been reported in all 18 states, dengue in 14, malaria in 16. Only 10.8% of the population has access to handwashing facilities, and the GDP per capita has collapsed to $989.
HNO 2025: Sector-Level Needs Assessment
The 2025 Humanitarian Needs Overview identifies 30.4 million people in need across all sectors, with 20.9 million targeted for assistance. Food security dominates the caseload at 25.1 million in need, followed by WASH (25.5M), health (20.3M), and mine action (13M). The targeting gap — between people in need and people targeted — averages 30%, reflecting operational constraints rather than reduced severity.
Funding Free-Fall: From 78% Coverage to 6.6%
The funding trajectory is alarming. The 2024 HRP was 77.7% funded ($2.09B of $2.70B) — reflecting the initial surge of attention to the crisis. But the 2025 plan, despite a higher requirement of $4.16B, received only 41.9% ($1.74B). The 2026 HRP has received just $189.4M of $2.87B — a coverage rate of 6.6% as of early February.
The United States remains the dominant donor ($750.9M in 2024, $388.5M in 2025), but its 2025 contribution dropped 48%. The European Commission increased from $132.8M to $186.4M, becoming the second-largest donor. The UK declined from $156M to $141M. The Sudan Humanitarian Fund, World Bank, and African Development Bank all feature prominently, reflecting a diversifying but insufficient donor base.
| Donor | 2024 ($M) | 2025 ($M) | 2026 ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 750.9 | 388.5 | 11.9 |
| European Commission (ECHO) | 132.8 | 186.4 | 42.2 |
| United Kingdom | 156.0 | 141.1 | — |
| Sudan Humanitarian Fund | 180.7 | 126.5 | — |
| Germany | 108.1 | 67.4 | 12.3 |
| African Development Bank | — | 97.5 | 31.1 |
| World Bank | 56.0 | 85.0 | — |
| Canada | — | 56.3 | 20.2 |
| CERF | 66.2 | 47.0 | — |
| France | — | — | 22.0 |
EU Migration Spending on Sudan: €1.3 Billion Across 78 Projects
Beyond humanitarian response, the EU has channelled €1.3 billion across 78 migration-related projects through the MigFund External Dimension (2000–2023). The largest sub-policy area is Migration-Development at €432.6M (33.4%), followed by Protection (€318M, 24.5%) and Crisis prevention (€238M, 18.4%). Legal migration and mobility received just €24.8M (1.9%) — consistent with the broader Africa-wide pattern of enforcement-heavy, mobility-light programming.
INFORM Severity: 4.7 / 5.0 — Maximum Scores Across Multiple Dimensions
The INFORM Severity Index rates Sudan at 4.7 out of 5.0 (Very High), with maximum scores (5.0) for impact of the crisis, geographical impact, human impact, and people in need. The INFORM Risk Index scores Sudan at 7.7/10 (rank 5 globally), with maximum scores for projected conflict probability (10.0) and uprooted people (10.0).
All Ceasefire Efforts Have Failed
No ceasefire has held. The September 2025 US–Egypt–Saudi–UAE “Quad” roadmap proposed a 3-month humanitarian truce leading to a permanent ceasefire and 9-month political transition, but neither side accepted the November 2025 comprehensive plan presented by the US envoy. Sudan's Transitional PM proposed an immediate UN/AU/Arab League-monitored ceasefire at the Security Council in December 2025. As of February 2026, US diplomats are pushing for a permanent ceasefire before end of March through the Board of Peace. Egypt hosted the fifth Consultative Mechanism meeting in Cairo in January 2026.