Situation Update

Syria Floods Update

2026-02-12 22 views 20 min read
5,300
IDPs Affected by Floods
14.5M
Drought-Affected (2025)
72%
Shelter Funding Gap
3
Deaths (Floods)
Situation Overview

When Floods Hit Displacement Camps

On 7–9 February 2026, heavy rainfall triggered extensive flooding across 21 IDP sites in Idleb and northern Lattakia governorates, directly affecting 5,300 displaced people in some of Syria’s most vulnerable communities (OCHA Flash Update No. 3). Two children were swept away and killed by floodwaters. A Syrian Arab Red Crescent volunteer was killed and six staff injured in a traffic accident while responding to the emergency. The floods rendered Ain Al-Bayda hospital inoperable and damaged or destroyed nearly 2,000 shelters.

This disaster did not arrive in isolation. Syria is in the grip of an escalating climate crisis that sits atop fourteen years of conflict and displacement. A mega-drought in 2025 affected 14.5 million people — the largest climate event in the country’s recorded history (EM-DAT). The GDACS regional drought alert has been active since October 2024. Yet the shelter and winterization response remains 72% underfunded, with only $31 million received of $112 million required (FTS).

This briefing draws on PRISM’s multi-source data infrastructure — EM-DAT, GDACS, HDX HAPI rainfall anomalies, OCHA flash updates, FTS funding data, and INFORM risk indices — to map the intersection of climate hazards, displacement vulnerability, and chronic underfunding that defines Syria’s humanitarian landscape in early 2026.

Key finding: The February 2026 floods destroyed 149 tents and damaged 1,850 shelters in camps where families were already contending with a snowstorm weeks earlier (OCHA Flash Update No. 3). The shelter/NFI winterization response has received just $31 million of $112 million required — a 72% funding gap that leaves displaced communities exposed to recurring climate shocks (FTS).

February 2026 Emergency

Flash Floods in Northern Syria

Between 7 and 9 February, sustained heavy rainfall caused flash flooding that inundated 21 IDP sites — most of them informal — in the Kherbet Al-Jouz area of Badama and Darkosh sub-districts, Idleb countryside (OCHA Flash Update No. 3). The damage was immediate and severe: 1,850 tents partially damaged, 149 destroyed, alongside 30 houses and several shops.

The human toll was devastating. Two children died in Ein Issa–Ein Bnar village after being swept away by floodwaters. A SARC Disaster Management Coordinator was killed when the response vehicle fell into a valley in Turkmen Mountain, and six personnel were injured. An additional 986 families were displaced from the Kherbet Al-Jouz area, and Ain Al-Bayda private hospital — a critical facility in the region — was rendered completely out of service, forcing the evacuation of patients and staff to Jisr Al-Shughur and Idleb.

February 2026 Flood Impact Summary
Source: OCHA Flash Update No. 3, 9 February 2026.

Emergency Response

  • Health: Seven mobile medical teams deployed; a 2.3-ton shipment of medicines and emergency kits dispatched to the Idleb Directorate of Health.
  • Shelter: Emergency response activated — tent repairs, replacements, and distribution of blankets, mattresses, clothing, and plastic sheeting. Access road rehabilitation and drainage improvements planned.
  • Collective shelters: Three schools designated as temporary shelters near Kherbet Al-Jouz; five additional schools prepared in northern Lattakia.
  • Relocation capacity: Authorities confirmed 1,500 housing units in Afrin, 100 in Lattakia, and 2,600 caravans for families returning to areas of origin.
Compounding crises: The February floods struck camps that had already been battered by a severe snowstorm in late January 2026 — which itself damaged 785 shelters and killed two infants in northern Idlib (OCHA Flash Update No. 2). Families face back-to-back climate shocks with no recovery window.

Displacement Crisis

170,000 Displaced in Eastern Syria

The February floods coincide with a massive displacement crisis in eastern Syria. As of 25 January 2026, over 170,000 internally displaced people were recorded across 178 communities in 27 sub-districts of Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh, and Ar-Raqqa governorates (OCHA Flash Update No. 2). Qamishli alone hosts approximately 97,900 IDPs, followed by Al-Malikiyyeh with around 32,000.

More than 30,000 people departed collective centres in Ar-Raqqa and Tabqa, moving primarily to Al-Hasakeh governorate. The opening of two humanitarian corridors on 25 January and a ceasefire extension on 24 January provided temporary relief. Convoys of 24 and 30 trucks carrying multi-sectoral assistance were dispatched or planned for Qamishli. Yet camps including Newroz, Areesha, and Sere Kaniye continue to face service gaps, overcrowding, and onward movements.

Humanitarian Response — People Reached (January 2026)
Source: OCHA Flash Update No. 2, 26 January 2026. Eastern Syria humanitarian response.

Climate & Disaster History

A Decade of Escalating Climate Shocks

Syria’s flood and drought history reveals an alarming escalation. The EM-DAT database records 9 major flood and drought events since 2006. The 2008 drought affected 1.3 million people and is widely cited as a driver of rural-to-urban migration that preceded the 2011 conflict. The 2021 drought hit 5.5 million. But the 2025 drought — affecting 14.5 million people — dwarfs all predecessors, impacting nearly 60% of Syria’s population.

Floods, while affecting fewer people in absolute terms, are particularly devastating for displaced communities living in informal settlements and damaged infrastructure. The 2019 floods affected 235,000 people; the 2021 floods 142,000. The February 2026 event, while smaller in scale, struck the most vulnerable: families in tents and makeshift shelters with zero resilience to water ingress.

Syria Flood & Drought Events — People Affected (EM-DAT, 2006–2025)
Source: EM-DAT International Disaster Database (CRED), accessed via PRISM. January 2026.
The drought escalation: Syria’s drought-affected population grew from 1.3 million (2008) to 5.5 million (2021) to 14.5 million (2025) — a ten-fold increase in less than two decades (EM-DAT). GDACS currently rates the regional drought at Orange alert level, active since October 2024.

Rainfall Analysis

A Country of Climate Extremes

HDX HAPI rainfall data for 2024 reveals a deeply polarised climate picture across Syria’s 14 governorates. While the national mean stands at 96.4% of the long-term average — slightly below normal — this masks extreme variations that drive both drought and flood risk simultaneously.

Eastern and southern governorates face acute water stress: As-Sweida averages just 83.4% of normal rainfall, followed by Dar’a (86.0%) and Al-Hasakeh (88.6%) — the breadbasket region that produces most of Syria’s wheat. Conversely, coastal governorates received excess rainfall: Tartous at 128.8% and Lattakia at 116.5% — precisely the region hit by the February 2026 floods.

Rainfall Anomaly by Governorate (% of Long-Term Average, 2024)
Source: HDX HAPI Rainfall Anomaly Data, accessed via PRISM. 809 dekadal observations, 2024.
Dual climate threat: Syria faces drought in the east and flooding in the west simultaneously (HDX HAPI). Lattakia — which received 116.5% of normal rainfall in 2024 — was one of the two governorates hit by the February 2026 floods. Al-Hasakeh — at just 88.6% — is the country’s agricultural heartland and hosts the largest concentration of displaced people.

Risk Assessment

INFORM Risk Profile: Climate Meets Conflict

Syria scores 7.5 on the INFORM Risk Index — classified as Very High and ranked 9th globally. The climate dimension is particularly alarming: Drought hazard scores 7.8 and River Flood 6.3, both at elevated levels. These natural hazards interact with a maximum-severity conflict environment (Projected Conflict Probability: 10.0) and extreme vulnerability (Health Conditions: 10.0, Uprooted People: 8.9).

The INFORM Severity Index rates the Syrian crisis at 4.5 (Very High), with “Drought/drier conditions” explicitly listed as a crisis driver alongside conflict and political instability. Humanitarian access is rated at Level 4 — among the most constrained in the world (ACAPS) — meaning that even when climate disasters strike, the ability to reach affected populations is severely limited.

Syria INFORM Risk Index — Key Dimensions

Funding Analysis

Funding the Gaps

The shelter and winterization sector — the frontline of climate resilience for displaced populations — has received just $31 million of $112 million required, a 72% funding gap (FTS). This chronic underfunding means camps cannot be winterised, drainage systems go unrepaired, and families face each climate event in the same damaged shelters.

The broader funding picture is equally bleak. Syria’s 2026 HRP requires $3.19 billion but has received only $117 million (3.66%) (FTS). The Syria 3RP — covering 6.1 million refugees in neighbouring countries — requires $4.70 billion but has received just $312 million (6.7%). Syria is classified as the 8th most underfunded regional crisis and 18th most underfunded national crisis globally (UNHCR Underfunded Crisis Index).

Syria HRP Funding: Requirements vs. Received (2024–2026)
Source: OCHA Financial Tracking Service, accessed via PRISM. February 2026.
The shelter gap: At current funding levels, the shelter/NFI winterization response can cover only 28% of needs. Every flood, snowstorm, and temperature drop compounds the deficit. CERF has allocated $25.3 million for Syria in 2024–2025, but this represents a fraction of what is required to climate-proof displacement sites.

Policy Recommendations

Urgent Actions Required

The convergence of climate shocks, mass displacement, and chronic underfunding in Syria demands immediate and coordinated action across multiple fronts.

01
Scale Up Shelter Funding
Close the $81 million shelter/NFI winterization gap. Prioritise flood-prone IDP sites in Idleb and Lattakia for drainage infrastructure, elevated tent platforms, and permanent shelter solutions.
02
Deploy Climate-Resilient Camp Infrastructure
Invest in site-level drainage systems, flood barriers, and elevated foundations for displacement camps in known flood-risk areas. The cost of prevention is a fraction of repeated emergency response.
03
Expand Mobile Health Capacity
The loss of Ain Al-Bayda hospital highlights the fragility of health infrastructure. Pre-position additional mobile medical teams and emergency medicine stocks in climate-vulnerable regions.
04
Drought-Resilient Agricultural Support
With 14.5 million drought-affected people and Al-Hasakeh — Syria’s breadbasket — receiving only 88.6% of normal rainfall, invest in drought-resistant crop varieties, irrigation rehabilitation, and livelihood diversification.
05
Anticipatory Action Financing
Shift from reactive to anticipatory funding. GDACS has maintained a drought alert since October 2024; rainfall anomaly data clearly identifies flood-risk regions. Use early warning data to trigger pre-positioned response.
06
Protection in Climate Response
Integrate protection services into all climate emergency responses. Children, older persons, and people with disabilities face heightened risks during displacement and relocation. Expand psychosocial support in affected communities.

Data Sources & References

OCHA Flash Update No. 3 — Flooding in IDP camps, northern Syria (10 Feb 2026)
OCHA Flash Update No. 2 — Humanitarian situation in east Syria (26 Jan 2026)
EM-DAT — International Disaster Database, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
GDACS — Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (JRC / OCHA)
HDX HAPI — Humanitarian Data Exchange, Humanitarian API (OCHA)
FTS — Financial Tracking Service, Syria HRP 2026 (OCHA)
INFORM Risk Index — Multi-hazard risk assessment (European Commission JRC)
INFORM Severity Index — Humanitarian crisis severity (IASC)
ACAPS — Humanitarian Access Overview
CERF — Central Emergency Response Fund (OCHA)
Global Protection Cluster — Protection Risks Monitoring
PRISM — Protection, Risk & Impact Severity Monitor
Syria drought floods displacement climate
Downloads & Resources
02.2026_Syria_Floods_Drought_Dataset.xlsx
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