Syria at a Crossroads
One year after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria is navigating the most consequential period in its modern history. The establishment of a Transitional Caretaker Administration in December 2024, followed by the appointment of Ahmed al-Sharaa as Interim President in January 2025, opened a window of cautious optimism — marked by a National Dialogue Conference, the lifting of EU and US sanctions, and the return of over one million refugees.
But the humanitarian reality tells a different story. With 16.5 million people in need — 68% of the population — and a 2026 HRP funded at just 3.66%, Syria faces what may be the widest gap between need and response in its crisis history. The security situation has deteriorated sharply: renewed government-SDF clashes displaced 170,000+ people in January 2026 alone, while explosive ordnance killed over 540 people in 2025.
This situation update draws on PRISM’s multi-source data infrastructure to provide a comprehensive picture of Syria’s humanitarian landscape — spanning political transition, funding, conflict, climate, and displacement — through January 2026.
Syria Humanitarian Timeline: December 2024 – January 2026
The past fourteen months have been defined by rapid political change, cautious return movements, and recurring security crises. The timeline below tracks the major developments shaping Syria’s humanitarian landscape since the fall of the Assad regime.
Latest Updates on Country Situation
The Funding Cliff
Syria’s HRP requirements have held steady at $3.19 billion for both 2025 and 2026, but actual funding has collapsed. In 2024, $1.62 billion was mobilised (39.8% coverage). In 2025, this fell to $1.22 billion (38.2%). As of January 2026, only $116.7 million has been received — 3.66% of the requirement.
The regional picture is equally dire. The Syria 3RP — covering 6.1 million refugees across neighbouring countries — requires $4.70 billion but has received only $312.2 million (6.7%). Syria is classified as the 18th most underfunded national crisis and 8th most underfunded regional crisis globally.
Top 15 Donors to Syria (All Years, FTS)
| Rank | Donor | Total Funding |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | EU (ECHO) | $337.3M |
| 2 | United States (USAID) | $327.6M |
| 3 | United Kingdom | $295.7M |
| 4 | Germany | $295.0M |
| 5 | US Department of State | $167.0M |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia | $130.7M |
| 7 | Syria Cross-border HF | $119.0M |
| 8 | Canada | $97.8M |
| 9 | Qatar Fund for Dev. | $87.7M |
| 10 | France | $85.2M |
| 11 | Syria Humanitarian Fund | $81.7M |
| 12 | Japan | $79.2M |
| 13 | Switzerland | $63.4M |
| 14 | Denmark | $59.6M |
| 15 | CERF | $58.5M |
A Country Still at War
Despite political transition, Syria remains the world’s 3rd most conflict-affected country on the ACLED Conflict Index (December 2025), with an “Extreme” classification. Political violence events, while declining from a peak of 30,734 in 2017, surged 21% in 2024 to 12,376 events before declining in 2025.
The security situation escalated dramatically in late 2025 and January 2026. Government-SDF clashes expanded from Aleppo to Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Hasakeh, displacing over 170,000 people. The SDF’s withdrawal from Al-Hol camp — housing approximately 24,000 residents — created a dangerous security vacuum. A ceasefire was eventually brokered on 30 January 2026, including provisions for Kurdish administrative integration and handover of border crossings.
INFORM Risk Profile
Syria scores 7.5 on the INFORM Risk Index (Very High, rank 9 globally). Human Hazard (9.4), Vulnerable Groups (8.9), and Institutional capacity (8.7) all score at “Extreme” levels — reflecting the intersection of active conflict, mass displacement, and governance collapse.
Protection Risks at Critical Levels
Syria has 15 documented protection risks, of which 11 are rated at severity 4 (Critical) — the highest level. These encompass enforced disappearance, attacks on civilians, child recruitment, forced marriage, torture, and trafficking. Over 100,000 people went missing under the former government, and concerns over abductions and enforced disappearances persist post-transition.
| Protection Risk | Severity |
|---|---|
| Abduction, kidnapping, enforced disappearance, arbitrary detention | 4 — Critical |
| Attacks on civilians and civilian objects | 4 — Critical |
| Child and forced family separation | 4 — Critical |
| Child, early or forced marriage | 4 — Critical |
| Disinformation and denial of access to information | 4 — Critical |
| Forced recruitment of children in armed groups | 4 — Critical |
| Presence of mines and explosive ordnance | 4 — Critical |
| Psychological / emotional abuse | 4 — Critical |
| Theft, extortion, forced eviction, property destruction | 4 — Critical |
| Torture or cruel, inhuman, degrading treatment | 4 — Critical |
| Trafficking in persons, forced labour, slavery | 4 — Critical |
| Discrimination, denial of resources / services / access | 3 — High |
| Gender-based violence | 3 — High |
| Impediments to legal identity, remedies, and justice | 3 — High |
| Restrictions on freedom of movement, siege, forced displacement | 3 — High |
When Conflict Meets Climate
Syria’s humanitarian crisis is compounded by accelerating climate impacts. The 2025 drought affected 14.5 million people — nearly 60% of the population — while the February 2023 earthquake remains the deadliest single event with 5,670 fatalities and over 8 million affected. Heavy snowstorms in December 2025 damaged 785 shelters and killed two infants in northern Idlib camps.
Rainfall anomalies show a complex picture: western governorates received up to 161% above average rainfall (Quneitra, Lattakia), signalling flooding risk in a country with severely damaged infrastructure, while eastern regions face continued water stress.
7.1 Million Still Displaced
The past year has seen significant, albeit cautious, return movements. Over 1.1 million refugees returned from neighbouring countries — a milestone UNHCR announced in September 2025. Nearly 1.9 million IDPs have returned to their areas of origin. Yet 7.1 million people remain internally displaced, concentrated in Idleb (30%), Aleppo (22.6%), and Rural Damascus (13.2%).
New displacement continues to outpace returns in conflict-affected areas. In January 2026 alone, fighting in Aleppo and northeast Syria displaced over 170,000 people, with 91% being women, girls, and boys.
What Needs to Happen Now
Syria’s political transition has created both unprecedented opportunities and acute risks. The international community faces a narrow window to support stabilisation while addressing the immense humanitarian burden that persists. Five priority actions stand out.
Data compiled from OCHA FTS, CERF, ACLED, EM-DAT, INFORM, HDX HAPI, UNHCR, and the Global Protection Cluster. Accessed via PRISM Humanitarian Analytics Platform, January–February 2026.