According to the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis for Mozambique of July 2026, 1,185,926 people, or 14.3% of the 8,304,539 people analysed, were in IPC Phase 3 or above in the current analysis period. The same analysis projects that this figure will rise to 1,837,005 people, or 22.1%, between October 2026 and March 2027. The rule compared the projected figure against the current estimate in the same analysis and found an increase of 651,079 people and 7.8 percentage points, a relative rise of 54.9%. The alert fired because the change exceeded both the threshold of 5.0 percentage points and the threshold of 100,000 people.
| Rule | IPC projection against the current period |
| Period | Oct 2026 - Mar 2027 |
| Phase 3+ before | 1,185,926 |
| Phase 3+ after | 1,837,005 |
| Phase 3+ share before (%) | 14.3 |
| Phase 3+ share after (%) | 22.1 |
| Change in people | 651,079 |
| Change in share (points) | 7.8 |
| Relative change | 0.549 |
| Population analysed | 8,304,539 |
| Judged against | a move of 5 points in the Phase 3+ share, or of 20% and 100,000 people. Fired on: pct_points, population. |
| Detected | 13 October 2026, run 19 |
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