According to IDMC's Internal Displacement Updates, between 1 and 30 September 2026 Ethiopia recorded 150,000 conflict-driven internal displacements, all from a single event. That event was a non-international armed conflict in Afar, with displacement dated 22 September 2026 and reported by local civil society organisations. The figure exceeds the alert's absolute floor of 50,000 and the 90th percentile of Ethiopia's own monthly record over the previous 19 months, which stood at 96,860.
| Rule | Displacement in a month against the country's own record |
| Period | 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30 |
| Displacement in the month | 150,000 |
| Events in the month | 1 |
| Months of history compared | 19 |
| 90th percentile of that history | 96,860 |
| Judged against | an absolute floor of 50,000; the 90th percentile of the country's own record, 96,860. Fired on: abs_floor, history_percentile. |
| Detected | 13 October 2026, run 19 |
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