According to IDMC's Internal Displacement Updates, between 1 and 13 October 2026 there were 51,276 conflict-driven internal displacements in the Philippines across 2 events. This figure is above the rule's absolute threshold of 50,000 and above the 90th percentile of the country's own monthly record over the previous 18 months, which stands at 19,306. The larger event, a non-international armed conflict between a non-state armed group and state actors in Tugunan, BARMM, dated 19 September 2026, accounts for 31,245 displacements. The second, a conflict between non-state armed groups in Nabalawag, BARMM, and Midsayap, Region XII, dated 16 September 2026, accounts for figures of 19,830 and 201, with both events sourced from the Department of Social Welfare and Development's DROMIC.
| Rule | Displacement in a month against the country's own record |
| Period | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-13 |
| Displacement in the month | 51,276 |
| Events in the month | 2 |
| Months of history compared | 18 |
| 90th percentile of that history | 19,306 |
| Judged against | an absolute floor of 50,000; the 90th percentile of the country's own record, 19,306. Fired on: abs_floor, history_percentile. |
| Detected | 13 October 2026, run 19 |
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