According to the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis published in September 2026, 19,245,823 people in Afghanistan, or 38.1% of the analysed population of 50,489,116, are projected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above between November 2026 and April 2027. This compares with 15,908,130 people (31.5%) in the current period of the same analysis, an increase of 3,337,693 people, equal to 6.6 percentage points and 21% in relative terms. The alert was triggered because, measured against the current-period figure in that analysis, the projected rise exceeded the rule's thresholds of 5 percentage points and 100,000 people.
| Rule | IPC projection against the current period |
| Period | Nov 2026 - Apr 2027 |
| Phase 3+ before | 15,908,130 |
| Phase 3+ after | 19,245,823 |
| Phase 3+ share before (%) | 31.5 |
| Phase 3+ share after (%) | 38.1 |
| Change in people | 3,337,693 |
| Change in share (points) | 6.6 |
| Relative change | 0.21 |
| Population analysed | 50,489,116 |
| Judged against | a move of 5 points in the Phase 3+ share, or of 20% and 100,000 people. Fired on: pct_points, population. |
| Detected | 15 October 2026, run 36 |