Burundi: agricultural production hotspot in JRC ASAP's October 2026 assessment, up from no hotspot in September 2026

According to JRC ASAP's agricultural production hotspots assessment of 11 October 2026, Burundi is classified as a hotspot in October 2026, up from no hotspot in the September 2026 assessment. The assessment states that Season A planting of beans, maize and sorghum is underway and that rainfall has been average over the past three dekads, while biomass remains below average across the country, with 71% of cropland in Cankuzo, 75% in Muyinga and 74% in Ruyigi showing poor vegetation conditions. It notes that Copernicus seasonal forecasts point to wetter-than-usual conditions in the coming months linked to the ongoing El Niño. Citing FEWS NET, the assessment reports that the Northern Lowlands are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the October to January lean season, with fuel shortages, the closed border with Rwanda and staple prices 10% to 50% above the five-year average constraining food access, Season A production expected to be below average due to fertiliser shortages and the delayed onset of rains, and El Niño-related rainfall likely to cause flooding, landslides and localised crop losses.

How this fired

Evidence

• JRC comment, October 2026: Planting of Season A crops, including beans, maize and sorghum, is underway. Rainfall has been average over the past three dekads, but biomass remains below average across the country, with 71% of cropland in Cankuzo, 75% in Muyinga and 74% in Ruyigi showing poor vegetation conditions. Linked to the ongoing El Niño, Copernicus seasonal forecasts point to wetter-than-usual conditions in the coming months. According to FEWS NET, the Northern Lowlands are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the October–January lean season following consecutive below-average harvests in 2026, while fuel shortages, the closed border with Rwanda and staple prices 10–50% above the five-year average continue to constrain food access. Season A production is also expected to be below average due to fertilizer shortages and the delayed onset of rains, and strong El Niño-related rainfall is likely to cause flooding, landslides and localized crop losses.
• JRC comment, September 2026: Season A planting of crops such as sorghum, maize and beans is about to start under below-average rainfall conditions. However, Burundi is forecast to receive El Niño-related above-average rainfall during the October–December (OND) rainy season, as indicated by the seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. According to WFP, the 2026B harvest improved market supplies in Burundi and prices remained broadly stable in August 2026, but most staples stayed above their five-year average, and the gradual depletion of household stocks, high inflation and fuel supply risks could weaken household access to food during the upcoming lean season.
• assessment date: 2026-10-11