According to ACLED's open-tier monthly aggregates published via HDX (data as of 9 October 2026), Chad recorded 39 political violence events in September 2026, with 50 reported fatalities, 33 civilian targeting events and 8 civilian fatalities. The rule compared this count against the 90th percentile of the country's previous 24 months, which stood at 31.4 events. Lac accounted for 21 of the 39 events, followed by Wadi Fira with 5 and Mayo Kebbi Ouest, Moyen-Chari and Ndjamena with 2 each.
| Rule | ACLED political violence events against the previous two years |
| Period | 2026-09 |
| Metric | pv_events |
| Value in the month | 39 |
| 90th percentile of that history | 31.4 |
| Months of history compared | 24 |
| Political violence events | 39 |
| Reported fatalities | 50 |
| Civilian targeting events | 33 |
| Civilians reported killed | 8 |
| Judged against | the 90th percentile of the country's own record over the previous 24 months, 31.4; at least 20 events or 10 civilians killed. Fired on: history_percentile. |
| Detected | 16 October 2026, run 37 |