Colombia: agricultural production hotspot in JRC ASAP's October 2026 assessment, up from no hotspot in September 2026

According to JRC ASAP's agricultural production hotspots assessment of 11 October 2026, Colombia is classed as a hotspot, up from no hotspot in the September 2026 assessment. The JRC analyst comment for October 2026 reports below normal rainfall over the past month, mostly in the northern departments, and attributes poor vegetation conditions in most cultivated areas of La Guajira, Cesar and Santander to El Niño drought effects. The same comment cites USDA for an estimated 6.9% drop in total domestic maize production compared with previous cycle estimates, and cites FEWSNET projections that Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will persist in Chocó and La Guajira through January 2027. It also cites the Copernicus C3S Multimodel forecast as giving a very high probability of drier than normal conditions across the country until the end of the year.

How this fired

Evidence

• JRC comment, October 2026: In October, the main cycle of rice should have normally concluded the harvesting stage, while minor cycles of maize and rice should be in the sowing stage. Rainfall in the past month has been below normal, mostly in the northern departments of the country. El Nino drought effects are most severely felt in areas of La Guajira and the departments of Cesar and Santander, where poor vegetation conditions are observed in most cultivated areas. It’s estimated that Colombia’s total domestic maize production dropped by 6.9% compared to previous cycle estimates, raising the needs for imports (USDA).Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level food insecurity is expected to persist in Chocó and La Guajira through January 2027 according to projections (FEWSNET). According to the Copernicus C3S Multimodel forecast, there is a very high probability that conditions will be very drier than normal across the country until the end of the year.
• JRC comment, September 2026: In September, the main cycles of maize and rice as well as barley and wheat are normally in the harvesting stage, while minor cycles of maize and rice are in the sowing stage.Rainfall in the past month have been normal to below normal, mostly in the northern departments of the country. Vegetation conditions are normal in most rangelands, likely providing average pasture conditions, while poor vegetation conditions are observed in most cultivated areas of La Guajira and the departments of Cesar and Santander.Fewsnet estimated Crisis (IP Phase 3) level of acute food insecurity classification of La Guajira and the affected area by the August 7.4-magnitude earthquake of Choco (FEWSNET). According to the Copernicus C3S Multimodel forecast, there is a very high probability that conditions will be very drier than normal across the country until the end of the year.
• assessment date: 2026-10-11