Peru: agricultural production hotspot in JRC ASAP's October 2026 assessment, up from no hotspot in September 2026

According to JRC ASAP's agricultural production hotspots assessment of 11 October 2026, Peru is classified as a hotspot, up from no hotspot in the September 2026 assessment. The JRC analyst comment for October 2026 states that cumulative rainfall over the previous three months was below average in the south-eastern part of the country, with heavy rainfall events in coastal areas, at a time when potato and sorghum are normally being harvested and white and yellow maize sown. The same comment reports, citing Gov.pe, that an emergency decree issued in August was expanded to 707 districts across 17 regions because of the threat of El Niño induced dry spells in Andean and Amazonian regions, and, citing IFRC, that intense rainfall caused material damage in the districts of Matapalo, Aguas Verdes and Zarumilla in Zarumilla Province. It adds that the Copernicus C3S Multimodel forecast indicates a higher probability of wetter than normal conditions in coastal areas through the end of the year, with water deficit likely to continue in the central and western part of the country.

How this fired

Evidence

• JRC comment, October 2026: In October, potato and sorghum cycles should normally be in the harvesting stage, while white and yellow maize cycles should continue the sowing stage.Cumulative rainfall in the past three months has been below average in the south-eastern part of the country but with heavy rainfall events in the coastal areas. Due to the threat of El Nino induced dry spells across Andean and Amazonian regions, the emergency decree issued in August was expanded to 707 districts across 17 regions to safeguard critical agricultural water reserves (Gov.pe). Conversely, intense rainfall caused material damage in the districts of Matapalo, Aguas Verdes, and Zarumilla in Zarumilla Province (IFRC). According to the Copernicus C3S Multimodel there is a higher probability of wetter than normal conditions in the coastal areas through the end of the year, while water deficit is likely to continue in the central and western part of the country.
• JRC comment, September 2026: In September, potato and sorghum cycles are in the harvesting stage while maize cycles should be in the sowing stage.Cumulative rainfall in the past month has been below average in the western part of the country and normal throughout the coastal areas. Nonetheless, the departments of San Martin and Arequipa, important grain-producing department, show poor vegetation conditions likely linked to the excess rainfall and related floods and landslides during the February to April period this year. The sharp rise in fuel price, with almost +64% year on year change, is negatively affecting agricultural activities in the country, leading the government to implement subsidies. In September, the Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno "El Niño" maintains an active "Alerta de El Niño Costero", with high probability that the phenomenon persists until Fall 2027 (ENFEN). The Copernicus C3S Multimodel forecasts a very high probability of wetter than normal conditions in the coastal areas through the end of the year. At the same time, conditions are very likely to be normal to drier than normal over the same period in the central and western part of the country.
• assessment date: 2026-10-11