Rwanda: agricultural production hotspot in JRC ASAP's October 2026 assessment, up from no hotspot in September 2026

According to JRC ASAP's agricultural hotspots assessment of 11 October 2026, Rwanda is classified as a hotspot for agricultural production in October 2026, up from no hotspot in the September 2026 assessment. The JRC analyst comment for October 2026 states that Season A planting of beans, maize and sorghum is nearly complete and that rainfall has been average over the past three dekads. It adds that biomass remains below average across the country, with 69% of cropland in Iburasirazuba (Eastern Province) and 83% in Kigali showing poor vegetation conditions. The same comment notes that Copernicus seasonal forecasts point to wetter-than-usual conditions linked to El Niño in the coming months, and cites WFP as reporting that the average cost of the food basket rose by 3% month-on-month and 7% year-on-year in September 2026, with funding shortfalls limiting assistance to refugee households to 50% of planned entitlements.

How this fired

Evidence

• JRC comment, October 2026: Planting of Season A crops, including beans, maize and sorghum, is nearly complete. Rainfall has been average over the past three dekads, but biomass remains below average across the country, with 69% of cropland in Iburasirazuba (Eastern Province) and 83% in Kigali showing poor vegetation conditions. Linked to the ongoing El Niño, Copernicus seasonal forecasts point to wetter-than-usual conditions in the coming months. According to WFP, the average cost of the food basket in Rwanda rose by 3% month-on-month and 7% year-on-year in September 2026, as food inflation and high fuel and transport costs offset the benefits of recent harvests. Refugee households have been hit particularly hard, with funding shortfalls limiting assistance to 50% of planned entitlements, while contingency planning for floods and landslides has been stepped up ahead of El Niño-driven above-average rainfall.
• JRC comment, September 2026: Season A planting of crops such as sorghum, maize and beans is about to start under below-average rainfall conditions. Iburasirazuba (Eastern Province) recorded no rainfall during the last 30 days, compared with a long-term average of 48 mm. However, Rwanda is forecast to receive El Niño-related above-average rainfall during the October–December (OND) rainy season, as indicated by the seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. According to WFP, the average cost of the food basket in Rwanda rose by 4 percent in August 2026 compared with July and by 9 percent year-on-year, as broader inflationary pressures and high transport and energy costs outweighed the easing effect of recent harvests and further eroded refugees' purchasing power.
• assessment date: 2026-10-11