Djibouti — humanitarian situation

Djibouti faces converging humanitarian pressures driven by regional displacement dynamics and anticipated climatic shocks. The country continues to host refugees, primarily from Yemen and Ethiopia, though exact current figures are not detailed in recent reports. Qatar Charity distributed food packages to approximately 1,300 Yemeni refugees in mid-June 2026, highlighting persistent food insecurity among refugee populations (Qatar Charity). Regional displacement across the IGAD area remains elevated, with Djibouti serving as both a host country and transit corridor for mixed migration flows, including movements between the Horn of Africa and Yemen (UNHCR, IOM). Climate forecasts indicate that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event is very likely from mid-2026, with most dynamical models suggesting it could become one of the strongest on record (IASC, IFRC, OCHA). Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across East Africa, the Red Sea area, and the Arabian Peninsula during July and August, followed by above-normal rainfall from September onwards associated with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (FAO). This oscillating pattern threatens agricultural production and food security, compounding existing vulnerabilities. The Food and Agriculture Organization notes that these conditions will affect desert locust breeding patterns across the region, though primary locust activity in May 2026 was concentrated in North Africa rather than the Horn (FAO). Food security concerns remain acute for both refugee populations and vulnerable host communities. The World Food Programme continues to implement its Country Strategic Plan while transitioning logistics operations following the decommissioning of the Humanitarian Logistics Hub, with plans to hand over infrastructure to the Government of Djibouti (WFP). WFP is implementing its first food assistance project funded by the Africa Development Bank, though coverage details and funding levels are not specified in available reports. The convergence of sustained displacement, anticipated El Niño impacts, and the transition of major logistics infrastructure poses risks to response continuity and the food security of affected populations in the coming months.