Ecuador — humanitarian situation

Ecuador faces a convergence of security, migration, and climate-related challenges that are compounding humanitarian needs across multiple sectors. Violence driven by drug-related crime has escalated sharply, making Ecuador one of the most insecure countries in the region (WFP). This deteriorating security situation is contributing to both continued mixed migration flows and increasing internal displacement. FEWS NET estimates that between 1.0 and 2.49 million people—representing 5 to 15 percent of Ecuador's population—will require humanitarian food assistance in 2026, with acute food insecurity concentrated among poor households dependent on informal labor, internally displaced persons, and Venezuelan and Colombian migrants. Poverty and extreme poverty rates stand at 21.4 percent and 8.3 percent respectively (WFP). The country continues to serve simultaneously as a destination, transit point, and increasingly as a country of origin for displaced populations (UNHCR). Border monitoring by IOM recorded an average daily flow of approximately 515 people crossing Ecuador's main frontier points between January and April 2026, though this represents a 25 percent decrease compared to late 2025. By May 2026, flows had declined further to approximately 300 people daily, a 34 percent drop from April (IOM). The North-South route accounted for approximately 53 percent of monitored movements in May. These shifting patterns reflect broader regional trends toward more restrictive policy environments and heightened security concerns that have contributed to a contraction in northbound mixed movements across Latin America (R4V). Food security conditions are expected to deteriorate further due to violence-related disruptions to income-generating activities and potential El Niño impacts. Most forecasts indicate at least a moderate-strength El Niño event from mid-2026, with a strong event increasingly possible (IASC, IFRC, OCHA). Ecuador's environmental vulnerability, combined with organized criminal violence disrupting livelihoods and market access, creates compounding risks for already vulnerable populations. The 2025 Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan received only approximately 10 percent of required funding, severely undermining response capacity (R4V), while partners across the sector have been forced to reduce or suspend activities due to sharp declines in humanitarian funding.