Eritrea — humanitarian situation

Eritrea is experiencing significant rainfall deficits as part of broader dry conditions affecting the northern sector of Eastern Africa. Analysis shows that from May through July 2026, persistent rainfall shortfalls have impacted Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan, with environmental monitoring products indicating widespread soil moisture deficits and vegetation stress across these areas IGAD. Most of Eritrea has already experienced a very poor June-September rainy season, attributed to strengthening El Niño conditions that are associated with below-average rainfall in the western parts of the region FAO, FSNWG, IGAD. The ongoing El Niño episode is forecast to intensify over the coming months and persist through early 2027, with a 95 percent chance of being categorized as strong or very strong by late 2026. The deteriorating rainfall conditions compound existing vulnerabilities across Eastern Africa, where 48.5 million people require humanitarian assistance, more than 40 million face acute food insecurity, and 8.3 million children are acutely malnourished OCHA. While country-specific figures for Eritrea were not provided in available reports, the regional drought pattern places Eritrean populations at elevated risk of food insecurity and agricultural disruption. Eritrean nationals continue to feature prominently among refugee populations in neighboring countries, with Eritreans among the primary nationality groups hosted in Yemen, where over 64,000 refugees and asylum seekers from Somalia, Ethiopia, Syria, Eritrea, Iraq, and Sudan reside UNHCR. Climate forecasts indicate above-normal rainfall from northern Africa to the central Middle East in September 2026, though wetter conditions are expected primarily in eastern Ethiopia and Somalia due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole FAO. The regional situation faces dual threats of ongoing drought in some areas and severe flooding risks expected to increase from October as the intensifying El Niño event affects the October-December rainy season, potentially amplified by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole OCHA. Desert locust activity in the broader region has declined in Morocco during July, though monitoring continues across North Africa and the Central Region FAO.