Guatemala — humanitarian situation

Guatemala faces compounding climate and public health pressures amid ongoing migration dynamics. Tropical Storm Cristina generated significant weather-related risks in mid-June 2026, prompting the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (CONRED) to activate an institutional orange alert and request reinforced monitoring in flood- and landslide-prone areas (WFP). Concurrently, drought concerns have triggered anticipatory measures: the Guatemalan Red Cross activated Early Action Protocols on 11 June to protect populations as El Niño entered its active phase, with forecasts indicating at least a moderate-strength event and potentially a strong event by mid-2026 (IFRC, IASC). These climate shocks arrive amid record global temperatures and could significantly affect agriculture and food security (WHH, IFRC). The country is experiencing a severe measles outbreak. Between epidemiological weeks 1 and 23 of 2026, Guatemala reported 6,895 confirmed measles cases, the second-highest caseload in the Americas after Mexico and accounting for approximately 31 percent of the region's 22,324 confirmed cases and 38 deaths (PAHO). This represents a 207 percent increase compared to the same period in 2025 across the region, though new cases fell 29 percent over the two weeks preceding 13 June (OCHA, PAHO). The outbreak underscores broader health system vulnerabilities as climate-related disasters strain response capacity. Migration patterns continue to evolve with shifting enforcement priorities. Since 2025, intensified U.S. interior immigration enforcement has changed returnee profiles, with Guatemala receiving citizens forced to return primarily from the United States and, in smaller numbers, from Mexico and other countries (IOM, MPI). The Government of Guatemala has been strengthening reintegration services, with a recent report indicating that most returnees envision their future in Guatemala when provided adapted support (IOM, MPI). The Americas region as a whole hosted 22.8 million forcibly displaced people at end-2025, an increase from 21.9 million at end-2024, though global forced displacement declined slightly to 117.8 million (UNHCR). Guatemala's humanitarian situation reflects intersecting vulnerabilities requiring coordinated response across climate adaptation, health system strengthening, and migration management.