Guatemala — humanitarian situation

Guatemala faces a convergence of climate-driven shocks and natural hazards that are deepening acute food insecurity across vulnerable regions. The Volcán de Fuego entered an atypical eruptive phase on 3 August, generating continuous emissions of gases, lava, and ash columns reaching 5,000 to 7,000 meters above sea level, with pyroclastic density currents extending southwest (Cruz Roja Guatemalteca, IFRC). Approximately 1,400 people were evacuated due to increased volcanic activity OCHA. Concurrently, the World Meteorological Organization forecasts that El Niño will intensify into a strong event between August and October 2026, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and driving extreme weather conditions across Central America OCHA, WFP. These climate shocks compound existing vulnerabilities, with WFP analysis indicating that the intensifying El Niño phenomenon will significantly worsen food insecurity in some of the world's most vulnerable countries through 2027. An estimated 3.2 million people in Guatemala are projected to face severe acute food insecurity conditions (IPC Phase 3 or above) between July and September 2026, driven by the lean season, anticipated El Niño effects, and persistently high food prices IPC. In the Corredor Seco, focused areas of Alta Verapaz, and the Western Highlands, the poorest households are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September due to a premature and prolonged lean season FEWS NET. Following consecutive years without basic grain reserves, these households have extended their market dependency for food while facing elevated food and transport prices, leaving them marginally able to meet their food needs. Crop damage from the Primera season has spread across the Corredor Seco, exacerbating the situation FEWS NET. Beyond food security concerns, the measles outbreak across the Americas presents an additional public health risk. The region has recorded its highest number of confirmed measles cases in 22 years, with 47,400 confirmed cases representing more than three times the total for 2025 OCHA, PAHO. The Pan American Health Organization issued an epidemiological alert urging countries to strengthen vaccination, surveillance, and rapid outbreak response measures, noting that public health risk remains very high due to ongoing outbreaks, immunity gaps, and increased population mobility PAHO.