Indonesia — humanitarian situation

Indonesia faces mounting climate and seismic hazards as a moderate to strong El Niño event is forecast to develop through mid-2026, compounding ongoing disaster response challenges. On 16 June 2026, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck Central Sulawesi Province at a depth of 10 km, with the epicentre located approximately 42 km southeast of Palu City (AHA Centre, PMI). The earthquake generated strong shaking in Palu (MMI VI–VII) and Sigi (MMI V–VI), with 71 aftershocks recorded by mid-afternoon, the strongest reaching magnitude 5.2 (AHA Centre). While no tsunami potential was identified, the event recalls the devastating 2018 Palu earthquake and tsunami that killed thousands in the same province. Response efforts are underway though detailed casualty and damage figures remain preliminary. El Niño conditions are very likely from mid-2026, with most forecasts indicating at least a moderate-strength event and a strong event increasingly possible (OCHA, IASC, IFRC). This climate driver does not arrive in isolation but amid record global temperatures, introducing compounded risks for agriculture and food security across the Asia-Pacific region (FAO, OCHA, WFP). Indonesia is among the countries highlighted for heightened vulnerability, with the emerging El Niño expected to produce more predictable seasonal weather patterns but also potentially severe disruptions to rainfall, crop cycles, and livelihoods (WHH). Gender-based violence risks are anticipated to increase as climate-related stresses intensify across Asia-Pacific, with Indonesia identified as a country requiring enhanced GBV preparedness measures (UNFPA, GBV AoR). Recent disaster response capacity was demonstrated following floods and landslides across three Indonesian provinces in late November 2025, when the Indonesian Red Cross deployed teams despite washed-out roads, landslides blocking routes, and complete power and communications blackouts to reach hundreds of thousands of affected people (IFRC). The organization used mini excavators to clear debris and delivered clean water and health services to isolated communities. Weekly disaster monitoring shows ongoing multiple hazard exposure, with floods, landslides, droughts, and wind-related disasters reported across multiple provinces including West Java, Central Java, Riau Islands, Central Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, West Sumatra, and North Sumatra (AHA Centre, BNPB).