India — humanitarian situation

El Niño conditions are very likely from mid-2026, with most forecasts indicating at least a moderate-strength event and a strong event increasingly possible (IASC, IFRC, OCHA). This arrives amid record global temperatures and follows similar episodes in 2015/16 and 2023/24 that produced documented food security impacts across multiple regions (WFP). Dynamical models indicate these conditions are persisting with a likelihood of becoming one of the strongest on record, expected to produce drier-than-normal conditions in East Africa, the Red Sea area, and the Arabian Peninsula during July and August, while above-normal rainfall is forecast in northern Africa (FAO). From September onwards, wetter conditions are expected to develop in association with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (FAO). The Asia-Pacific region is highly exposed to climate variability and global economic shocks, with significant implications for agricultural production and food security compounded by global fuel and fertilizer disruptions (FAO, OCHA, WFP). Despite gains in food production and nutrition over several decades, India continues to face persistent food and nutrition insecurity (WFP). Child stunting fell from 35.5 percent in 2019-21 to 29.3 percent, though further progress is needed (WFP). Water scarcity presents a growing concern as a binding constraint on development, with India supporting 16 percent of the world's human population and 17 percent of livestock with just 4.25 percent of global freshwater resources (IWMI). A 3.5-fold population increase over the last six decades has made India one of the most water-stressed countries globally (IWMI). On the response side, on 23 May 2026 in Jharsuguda, Odisha, state ministers inaugurated the second standalone Grain ATM and announced a statewide scale-up with expansion planned in other states, strengthening last-mile food access, transparency, and efficient public distribution nationwide (WFP). Globally, the window to act before the El Niño crisis peaks is closing, with forecasting now stronger than during previous events creating opportunities for anticipatory action (IASC, IFRC, OCHA).