Kenya — humanitarian situation

Kenya faces mounting humanitarian pressures driven by an anticipated El Niño-intensified flooding event and regional health threats. The Danish Refugee Council projects that a powerful El Niño weather phenomenon beginning in October 2026 could displace up to three million people across East Africa by year-end in a worst-case scenario, with Kenya and Somalia expected to account for the largest share of displacements DRC. This forecast comes as parts of western and northwestern Kenya have already experienced very dry conditions during the June-September season, a pattern associated with El Niño in western portions of the region FAO, FSNWG, IGAD. The strengthening El Niño episode, forecast to persist through early 2027 with a 95 percent probability of reaching strong or very strong intensity by late 2026, is expected to generate above-average rainfall and elevated flood risk during the October-to-December rainy season in eastern areas FAO, FSNWG, IGAD. Kenya hosts significant refugee populations in Dadaab and Kakuma camps and Kalobeyei Integrated Settlement, where market conditions remained constrained during the first quarter of 2026 despite favorable seasonal conditions from the March-to-May long rains. Supply chain disruptions and rising transportation costs contributed to mixed commodity price trends, with 98 percent of vendors reporting operational challenges primarily linked to higher supplier prices, insufficient restocking funds, and reduced customer numbers REACH. Supply constraints were particularly pronounced in Dadaab camp. The national Minimum Expenditure Basket declined compared to the previous quarter, though county-level trends varied reflecting localized market conditions and transport costs REACH. The regional Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak centered in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo poses cross-border risks, with 5,001 confirmed cases and 2,378 deaths reported as of 16 August IOM. The outbreak is increasingly affecting cross-border movements of humanitarian workers, cargo, and commercial travel despite WHO guidance OCHA. Kenya's humanitarian system is also undergoing structural transition as governments and partners across East Africa shift refugee health service delivery from parallel humanitarian systems toward national health systems, reflecting commitments under the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework and Global Compact on Refugees amid protracted displacement and mounting budget pressures IRC.