Madagascar — humanitarian situation

Madagascar's southern regions remain in acute food insecurity, driven by consecutive climate shocks and below-average agricultural production. As of mid-2026, approximately 2.12 million people—7 percent of the analyzed population—face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity between June and September 2026, including over 183,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions IPC. The situation is concentrated in the Grand Sud districts of Atsimo-Andrefana and Androy, where climate change effects have depleted essential natural resources including water, forests, and arable land, exacerbating socio-economic vulnerabilities and inter-communal tensions IOM. Food security is projected to deteriorate sharply from October 2026 through February 2027, with the number of people in crisis expected to jump by 75 percent, reaching approximately 3.7 million (Save the Children, IPC). This early onset of the lean season follows atypically poor harvests of cassava and sweet potato, causing household food stocks to deplete within two months rather than the typical four-month period FEWS NET. Districts including Toliara II and Amboasary Atsimo experienced Crisis outcomes as early as July 2026, with expansion anticipated across multiple areas of Atsimo-Andrefana, Androy, and parts of Anosy as households exhaust stocks and face seasonal food price increases FEWS NET. Child malnutrition presents a critical concern, with approximately 500,000 children under five—roughly one in ten—facing or projected to face acute malnutrition (Save the Children). During the 2025-2026 lean season, WFP reached 531,000 people through unconditional food assistance in the Grand Sud, including 38,593 children aged 6-23 months and 32,159 pregnant and breastfeeding women supported through acute malnutrition prevention programs WFP. The sixth and final distribution cycle concluded in June 2026, while WFP delivered nutrition supplements to 9,800 children and 3,400 pregnant and breastfeeding women in Cyclone-affected communities WFP. Looking ahead, anticipated El Niño conditions threaten to further compound food security challenges in the Grand Sud through January 2027, potentially limiting agricultural recovery and prolonging market dependence among vulnerable households FEWS NET. The confluence of climate variability, resource depletion, and early stock exhaustion positions Madagascar for prolonged humanitarian need in the coming months.