Mauritania — humanitarian situation

Mauritania continues to grapple with chronic food insecurity driven by severe environmental degradation and climatic shocks. According to the November 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis, 612,395 people—representing 12 percent of the population—are projected to face crisis or worse levels of food insecurity (WFP). This vulnerability is compounded by extensive desertification affecting the country's predominantly arid territory, where only 0.4 percent of land is classified as arable, severely constraining both agricultural and pastoral livelihoods (WFP). The evolving El Niño conditions, anticipated to reach at least moderate strength by mid-2026 with increasing likelihood of a strong event, pose additional risks to an already fragile food security situation (IASC, IFRC, OCHA). Forecasts indicate above-normal rainfall for northern Africa during July and August, followed by widespread precipitation from September onward associated with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (FAO), though these climate patterns arrive amid record global temperatures that may amplify humanitarian impacts. The country serves as a significant transit and destination point for mixed migration movements across North Africa, with the border town of Rosso functioning as the principal official crossing between Mauritania and Senegal and a major hub for commercial and migratory flows in the subregion (IOM). High-risk, life-threatening migration journeys continue to present multifaceted challenges for host communities and humanitarian actors (UNHCR). Despite increases in refugee and internally displaced person returns across West and Central Africa, forced displacement in the broader region remains elevated, prompting calls for greater international investment in voluntary return, reintegration, and socio-economic inclusion to enable displaced populations to move beyond long-term humanitarian assistance (UNHCR). Desert locust activity in neighboring Morocco and Algeria during May 2026, including hopper groups and bands forming into immature adult swarms, represents a potential threat to regional agricultural production during the upcoming forecast period (FAO). The intersection of environmental degradation, climate variability, and migration pressures underscores the need for sustained attention to emergency preparedness and resilience-building measures in Mauritania's fragile context.