Nigeria — humanitarian situation

Nigeria's humanitarian crisis continues to affect millions across the Northeast and Northwest regions, driven by prolonged insurgency, intercommunal violence, and escalating climate-related shocks. In Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, conflict-driven displacement remains the primary driver of humanitarian need. The Nigeria Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan targets 5.9 million people in these three states, though first-quarter 2026 response reached only 553,000 individuals, including 76,000 internally displaced persons and 58,000 returnees (OCHA). In the Northwest, tensions persist between farming and pastoral communities, with the Transhumance Tracking Tool capturing 27 alerts in Katsina and Zamfara states during May 2026, including conflict events and sudden population movements (IOM). Years of insecurity have compounded vulnerabilities across both regions, leaving communities with severely limited access to basic services. Borno State faces one of its most severe cholera outbreaks in recent years, first confirmed on 1 May 2026 and rapidly spreading across 16 Local Government Areas (Médecins du Monde). The outbreak strikes populations already weakened by conflict, displacement, poverty, and inadequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Health system capacity remains strained, with blood supply shortages reported across the country affecting emergency surgical care (WHO). The broader health environment is threatened by Lassa fever transmission, particularly in states like Ondo where community sensitization efforts continue (WHO). Funding constraints significantly limit response capacity. The 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan requires $516.4 million for Northeast operations but received only $232.8 million through March 2026, representing 45 percent of requirements (OCHA). This funding gap restricts response coverage to approximately 22 percent of the target population during the first quarter. Looking ahead, forecasts indicate El Niño conditions are very likely from mid-2026, with most models predicting at least moderate strength and a strong event increasingly possible (IASC, IFRC, OCHA). These climate patterns threaten to compound existing vulnerabilities through altered rainfall patterns and potential flooding, arriving amid already elevated global temperatures and ongoing humanitarian pressures.