Nepal — humanitarian situation

Nepal faces compounding humanitarian risks as the strengthening 2026 El Niño event coincides with global economic pressures stemming from the Middle East crisis. Forecasts from mid-2026 indicate a moderate to strong El Niño developing, with most models projecting conditions to persist through early 2027 OCHA, FAO. Below-average monsoon rainfall associated with El Niño poses substantial threats to agricultural production at critical growth stages, particularly affecting the October harvest period FEWS NET. These climate-related disruptions arrive alongside continued instability in global fuel and fertilizer markets, creating heightened uncertainty for food security across South Asia WFP. UNICEF reported providing life-saving assistance to 2.3 million crisis-affected people across South Asia, including Nepal, during the first half of 2026, with 1.9 million of those reached being children. Services delivered encompassed health, nutrition, WASH, education, and child protection programming UNICEF. Protection concerns remain acute, with documented cases of child trafficking continuing to affect vulnerable populations in eastern Nepal, particularly in districts like Jhapa where families dependent on daily wage labor face economic precarity (Caritas). The GBV Area of Responsibility has identified Nepal among countries where El Niño conditions are introducing additional layers of risk for gender-based violence in emergencies (GBV AoR, UNFPA). The Start Network's Risk Pool 05, operational from May 2026 through April 2027, has allocated £11 million to protect more than 767,000 people across 10 countries from climate-related crises including drought, floods, cyclones, and heatwaves. Through risk pooling mechanisms, the fund can provide up to £15.9 million in anticipatory and early response funding when forecast thresholds are reached (Start Network). However, the window for preventive action ahead of peak crisis periods is closing rapidly, with humanitarian actors emphasizing that El Niño arrives amid record global temperatures and intersecting vulnerabilities OCHA, IASC, IFRC.