Pakistan — humanitarian situation

Pakistan continues to manage complex dynamics related to Afghan refugee movements amid broader regional crisis impacts and emerging climate risks. Cross-border tensions with Afghanistan have persisted through May and June 2026, disrupting movement at eastern border districts and straining reception capacity at key crossing points such as Torkham (UNHCR). Afghan returns from Pakistan to Afghanistan continued during May, placing pressure on border assistance mechanisms (UNHCR). As of 31 May 2026, Pakistan hosts a significant population of refugees and Afghans of other status, with voluntary repatriation operations ongoing since January (UNHCR). The Government of Pakistan's Illegal Foreigners' Repatriation Plan has created a deteriorating protection environment affecting different demographic groups across the age, gender, and diversity spectrum, according to participatory assessments conducted in December 2025 (UNHCR). Food security conditions show marginal improvements despite elevated staple prices following the Middle East crisis that began in late February 2026. As of 11 June, the national average cost of a basic food basket stands at PKR 15,813 per month (USD 57), with wheat flour prices decreasing slightly due to improved supply and lower petrol prices reducing transport costs (WFP). However, staple food prices for wheat flour and edible oils remain elevated compared to pre-crisis levels in February (WFP). These market dynamics occur against the backdrop of anticipated El Niño conditions expected from mid-2026, with forecasts indicating at least a moderate-strength event and increasingly possible strong intensity (IASC, IFRC, OCHA). National disaster management actors have activated monsoon contingency plans for 2026 to address El Niño-driven weather challenges, focusing on preparedness, timely response, and coordinated recovery efforts across vulnerable communities (Alkhidmat Foundation). Public health gains continue in specific provinces, with WHO pre-validating the elimination of maternal and neonatal tetanus in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in partnership with UNICEF, bringing approximately 250 million people—94% of Pakistan's population—into areas where neonatal tetanus spread remains under controlled limits (WHO). The broader regional context includes heightened humanitarian needs stemming from the Middle East military escalation that began 28 February 2026, which has generated far-reaching consequences including refugee returns under adverse conditions (UNHCR).