Papua New Guinea — humanitarian situation

Papua New Guinea is grappling with the immediate aftermath of Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila while facing compounding climate risks from an emerging El Niño event forecast to persist through 2026 into early 2027. Cyclone Maila, which struck in late April alongside Cyclone Vaianu, has affected over 143,000 people across five provinces, with assessments as of 28 May covering 279 wards in 29 local-level governments (UNCT PNG). More than 127,000 people are now in need of humanitarian assistance, with 55 fatalities reported. The cyclone's impact comes as multiple climate forecasts indicate at least a moderate-strength El Niño is very likely from mid-2026, with a strong event increasingly possible, posing predictable but severe risks to agriculture and food security across the Pacific region (IASC, IFRC, OCHA). Priority needs following Cyclone Maila include food assistance, shelter and non-food items, water and sanitation services, and health support, with particular urgency for isolated and hard-to-reach communities (UNCT PNG). The cyclone has stretched emergency response capacity, with operational constraints including rough sea conditions and limited access to remote locations hampering relief delivery. Gender-based violence risks have intensified in the cyclone's wake, as evacuation centres—familiar refuges during Pacific storms—have become sites of heightened danger for women, with protection concerns extending beyond the immediate storm period (GBV AoR, UNFPA). The Pacific Regional Cash Working Group has been assessing financial service provider capacity across PNG and neighboring Pacific Island countries to support humanitarian cash and voucher assistance programming (PHT, PRCWG, WFP). The emerging El Niño introduces additional vulnerabilities to an already strained context, with forecasts pointing to agricultural disruption and food security deterioration compounded by global fuel and fertilizer market shocks affecting the Asia-Pacific region (FAO, OCHA, WFP). The climate event does not arrive in isolation but amid record global temperatures, creating cascading risks for rural livelihoods dependent on subsistence agriculture (IASC, IFRC, OCHA). Humanitarian agencies emphasize that while El Niño produces more predictable seasonal patterns and forecasting capabilities have improved, the window for anticipatory action before crisis peaks is rapidly closing (WHH).