Somalia — humanitarian situation

Somalia faces concurrent climate shocks driven by prolonged drought in central regions alongside preparations for potentially severe El Niño-related flooding during the October–December rainy season. Rainfall deficits have persisted from May through July across northern parts of the country, resulting in widespread livestock losses, livestock diseases, and food and water shortages (Radio Ergo). Analysis of environmental monitoring data shows soil moisture deficits and vegetation stress extending across the region IGAD. While scattered southern areas have received beneficial rainfall supporting farmers and herders, the failed 2025 deyr season and below-average gu rains are expected to produce a July–August sorghum harvest at least 50 percent below average, particularly affecting the southern sorghum belt WFP. OCHA reports that 48.5 million people across Eastern Africa require humanitarian assistance, with over 40 million facing acute food insecurity. An extremely critical malnutrition situation has been documented in Baidoa displacement sites, where one in every two children screened is acutely malnourished and one in four is severely malnourished MSF. These findings from surveys conducted in July exceed emergency thresholds and reflect conditions among already vulnerable displaced populations in Southwest Somalia. The national total food and non-food basket costs US$215, representing an 8.6 percent year-on-year increase and remaining above $200 since October 2025 WFP. Fuel and transport cost surges linked to the Middle East crisis have partially passed through to food and water prices, with the most acute pressure concentrated in the southern sorghum belt. IOM continues emergency trend tracking across 13 districts using updated methodology to monitor conflict-driven displacement and anticipated climatic impacts from the intensifying El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to trigger significant displacement toward year-end. UNFPA has identified heightened risks for women, girls, and youth from anticipated flooding during the 2026 Deyr season, emphasizing the need for early action to protect access to essential sexual and reproductive health and gender-based violence services. The Republic of Korea has contributed US$30 million to WFP to launch the second phase of emergency assistance for conflict-affected and displaced populations WFP.