Zimbabwe — humanitarian situation

Zimbabwe's 2025/26 agricultural season concluded with improved national food security conditions driven by above-normal rainfall and ongoing harvests, though significant localized vulnerabilities persist. National cereal production reached 2.74 million MT, representing a 2% increase in maize output compared to the previous season (WFP). However, this aggregate surplus conceals substantial district-level deficits in areas including Mutare, Buhera, Chivi, and Beitbridge, where households face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes through September 2026 (FEWS NET). The positive production outlook follows a challenging period marked by flooding between January and March 2026, triggered by La Niña-induced heavy rainfall that caused dam spillages, riverine overflow, and flash flooding across multiple districts (IFRC). The floods heightened risks of waterborne disease outbreaks, including cholera and malaria, compounded by chronic WASH system vulnerabilities (Start Network). Households in deficit-producing districts continue to experience constrained purchasing power due to persistently high grain prices and limited cash incomes from below-average casual labor opportunities and livestock sales (FEWS NET). The Lean Season Assistance cycle concluded in April, reaching 199,000 people across four districts, one month beyond the planned timeline due to logistical constraints (WFP). Markets have remained functional with stable commodity availability, though food access remains fragile in areas with uneven harvest outcomes (WFP). Climate-resilient farming interventions in southeastern districts such as Chipinge have demonstrated measurable improvements in household food security, particularly for vulnerable populations facing recurrent drought conditions (IFRC). Looking ahead, humanitarian actors face an emerging threat from a likely moderate-to-strong El Niño event developing from mid-2026, arriving amid record global temperatures and following the recent La Niña impacts (OCHA, IASC, IFRC). Early warning systems indicate potential agricultural implications for crops, livestock, and market stability, creating a narrow window for anticipatory action before conditions deteriorate (WHH). This climate transition occurs against a backdrop of chronic heat exposure that threatens already vulnerable populations in subtropical climates (UNDRR), underscoring the need for sustained resilience programming alongside immediate response capacity.