The percentage chance of below-normal, near-normal and above-normal rainfall for the next three three-month seasons, for 52 African countries and their first-level areas, calculated by PRISM each month from the seasonal forecasting systems published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Each system is compared with its own 1993 to 2016 hindcasts, the odds are averaged across the systems with the two ECCC systems at half weight each, and the result is placed on a 1 degree grid. A grid cell whose season usually brings under 30 mm of rain is left out, a country or area with under a quarter of its cells in season is not read for that season, and a country over 1.5 degrees from a grid cell is not read. Every monthly edition is kept. These are odds for planning, and national meteorological services issue the official forecasts.

SourcesCopernicus Climate Change Service, seasonal forecast monthly statistics on single levels (doi:10.24381/cds.68dd14c3)

Geographic coverageAfrica: 52 countries and their first-level areas, on a 1 degree grid

Temporal coverageMonthly editions from October 2026, each covering the next three three-month seasons

Update cadenceMonthly, on the 11th, after Copernicus publishes the month's forecasts on the 10th; every edition is kept

AccessRainfall & Climate tab of the climate module and the Climate tab of country pages; JSON at /api/climate/seasonal-forecast

LicencePRISM's calculation CC BY-SA 4.0. Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information, under CC BY 4.0 and the additional licence for non-European contributions. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use made of this information.

Cite this dataset

PRISM (2026). Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Africa. PRISM, Protection, Risk & Impact Severity Monitor. Version 5.0. PRISM's calculation CC BY-SA 4.0. Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information, under CC BY 4.0 and the additional licence for non-European contributions. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use made of this information. Retrieved 2026-11-08, from https://www.prismonitor.eu/data/seasonal-rainfall-forecast

@misc{prism_seasonal_rainfall_forecast_2026,
  author       = {PRISM},
  title        = {Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Africa},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {PRISM, Protection, Risk \& Impact Severity Monitor},
  version      = {5.0},
  url          = {https://www.prismonitor.eu/data/seasonal-rainfall-forecast},
  urldate      = {2026-11-08},
  note         = {PRISM's calculation CC BY-SA 4.0. Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information, under CC BY 4.0 and the additional licence for non-European contributions. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use made of this information.},
}

TY  - DATA
AU  - PRISM
TI  - Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Africa
PY  - 2026
PB  - PRISM, Protection, Risk & Impact Severity Monitor
ET  - 5.0
UR  - https://www.prismonitor.eu/data/seasonal-rainfall-forecast
Y2  - 2026/11/08/
N1  - PRISM's calculation CC BY-SA 4.0. Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information, under CC BY 4.0 and the additional licence for non-European contributions. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use made of this information.
ER  -

Download .bib .ris · version 5.0 · retrieved 2026-11-08

PRISM (2026). Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Africa. Protection, Risk & Impact Severity Monitor. https://www.prismonitor.eu/data/seasonal-rainfall-forecast. Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information.

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