Middle East Situation Update #2

The joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran — combined with Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the Persian Gulf and the Levant — has created a multi-front humanitarian emergency with no modern precedent in the region. (CNN) Within one week, the conflict killed over 1,000 people across Iran alone, displaced at least 230,000 regionally, shuttered critical humanitarian logistics hubs in Dubai and across the Gulf, and triggered the first simultaneous targeting of all six GCC member states by a single actor. (TIME)

For the countries already tracked in the Iran Population Movement Nexus, the escalation compounds existing fragilities: Iran’s 3.7 million forcibly displaced persons (the world’s largest refugee-hosting population) face direct bombardment; Afghanistan’s returnee crisis accelerates as border crossings close; and Iraq, Lebanon, and Türkiye absorb secondary displacement waves. (Daily Sabah) This update examines two critical dimensions: the civil-protection actions taken by governments across the theatre, and the humanitarian funding and aid-flow response from international actors. (ACLED Special Issue)

Escalation Timeline: From the Twelve-Day War to Operation Epic Fury

The current crisis is the culmination of a cascading escalation that began with the Twelve-Day War in June 2025, when Israel struck Iranian military and nuclear facilities. US strikes on three nuclear sites followed under Operation Roaring Lion. (Defense Update) A fragile ceasefire gave way to mass protests inside Iran in late 2025, a violent government crackdown, and ultimately the launch of Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026.

Government Actions for Civil Defence and Protection of Populations

Governments across the affected region have activated emergency civil-protection frameworks at varying speeds and scales. The responses range from Israel’s mature Home Front Command infrastructure to improvised shelter-in-place measures across Gulf states that had never before faced direct missile attack. Iran’s own government, meanwhile, faces the paradox of being both the target of external bombardment and the perpetrator of internal repression against its own citizens.

Regional Displacement Flows and Protection Access

The conflict has triggered simultaneous displacement events across at least five distinct corridors. Inside Iran, the constant bombardment of urban centres — where the majority of the country’s 3.7 million forcibly displaced persons reside — has created acute vulnerability for Afghan, Iraqi, and other refugee populations who lack both documentation and access to shelter infrastructure. UNHCR reports over 100,000 people fled Tehran in the first two days alone, and this figure has since been surpassed.

In Lebanon, Israeli evacuation orders covering 53+ villages south of the Litani have driven at least 95,773 people into displacement as documented by the Ministry of Social Affairs (MoSA) by 5 March. (UNHCR) Of 399 shelters opened across the country, 357 are already at full capacity (NRC), forcing redirection to northern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. (UNRWA) Meanwhile, 11,000 people crossed from Lebanon into Syria in a single day. (NPR) In Afghanistan, the crisis is compounded by the concurrent Afghanistan–Pakistan border conflict (UNAMA), which has displaced 66,000 people in eastern provinces, while 232,500+ Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan in 2026 alone.

Humanitarian Funding, Aid Flows and Operational Constraints

The military escalation has not only created new humanitarian needs at massive scale — it has simultaneously severed the logistical arteries through which global humanitarian aid flows. The WHO and IFRC hub in Dubai, which services emergency requests across the Middle East and beyond, is effectively frozen. Pre-positioned emergency stockpiles worth approximately €1 million in Swiss francs cannot be moved (UNHCR) to support Iranian Red Crescent operations. Meanwhile, aid to Gaza and Sudan is grinding to a halt as transit corridors are disrupted.

Demographic Breakdown of Affected Populations

Iran’s population of approximately 93 million is now caught between large-scale external military operations and a government with a long record of gross human rights violations. The most vulnerable groups include the 2.6 million Afghan refugees concentrated in urban areas under bombardment, women and children who comprised the majority of the ~150 schoolchildren killed in the Minab school strike, and the thousands of political detainees arrested during the January 2026 protests who face expedited death penalty proceedings.

Diplomatic and Political Responses

The international community remains deeply divided. The UN Security Council met in emergency session on 28 February but has produced no resolution. Secretary-General Guterés described the strikes as “squandering an opportunity for diplomacy.” Among European governments, only Spain has formally condemned the initial US-Israeli strikes. The UK convened its emergency COBRA committee, emphasising de-escalation while stopping short of condemnation.

The OHCHR Fact-Finding Mission on Iran has called for the immediate end of internet and communication shutdowns, raised alarm about the fate of political detainees, and urged all parties to comply with international humanitarian law. Amnesty International has issued a parallel urgent call for civilian protection.

Priority Actions for Protection and Humanitarian Response