Situation Update
Iran Palestine Lebanon

From Iran to Gaza: Mapping the Humanitarian Shockwave of the US-Israeli War on Iran

2026-03-15 425 views 109 min read
IDPs
4,148,100
Internally Displaced Persons
Killed
1,348
Civilians Killed in Iran
17,000 injured
Anadolu Agency ↗
Border crossings
17,700
Lebanese & Iranians Crossing Borders
UNHCR Regional Update #4 ↗
Returns
572,900
Afghans & Syrians Returning to Origin
111,800 since crisis start
UNHCR Regional Update #4 ↗

Regional Escalation & Humanitarian Impact

Since the launch of the US-Israeli war on Iran, 4,148,100 people have been internally displaced across the region. [UNHCR Regional Update #4] In Iran, 1,348 civilians have been killed and over 17,000 injured since the start of the attacks carried out by Israel and the US. [Anadolu Agency] More than 1,100 children have been reported injured or killed in the violence. This includes 200 children reportedly killed in Iran, 91 in Lebanon, four in Israel and one in Kuwait. [UNICEF]

In Lebanon, MoPH reports 139 people killed and 347 injured during 12–13 March, bringing the cumulative toll to 773 fatalities and 1,933 injuries. Attacks against health workers, facilities and transport continue as MoPH reports 18 health workers killed and 48 injured in 26 attacks on health care. 830,000 people are registered as internally displaced in Lebanon. [OCHA Lebanon Flash Update #8]


Timeline: 28 February – 14 March 2026

A day-by-day chronology of the regional escalation originating from US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Events are categorised by domain and sourced to primary reporting.

How to read this timeline: Click any day panel to expand or collapse it. Use the category buttons below to filter by theme — for example, select Humanitarian to trace only the civilian impact thread across all 14 days. The coloured bar on each event’s left edge matches its category.
PRE
6–27 February 2026
Nuclear Talks & Military Buildup
6 FebDiplomacy
Indirect US-Iran nuclear talks begin in Muscat, Oman, mediated by FM Badr Al-Busaidi.
17 FebDiplomacy
Second round of high-level US-Iran nuclear talks resumes in Geneva with Omani mediation.
25–27 FebDiplomacy
Iranian FM Araghchi states a ‘historic’ agreement is ‘within reach.’ Oman confirms Iran agreed to degrade enriched uranium and accept IAEA verification. Trump warns ‘all options’ remain on the table.
27 FebPolitics
Trump says he is ‘not thrilled’ with Iran. US envoy Witkoff says Iran insisted on ‘inalienable right’ to enrich uranium.
01
28 February 2026
Strikes Begin — Khamenei Killed
~06:20Military
Xinhua reporters in Tehran hear first explosions. Israeli Defence Minister confirms a ‘preemptive’ strike; Israel declares nationwide emergency.
~06:30Military
Trump announces ‘major combat operations’ under Operation Epic Fury. ~900 strikes in 12 hours. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei assassinated in Tehran.
07:00–09:30Military
IRGC launches massive retaliation: 480 ballistic missiles + 720 drones on day one. Strikes hit US bases in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan.
~11:00Humanitarian
US strike hits girls’ school in Minab, Hormozgan Province, killing ~168 schoolgirls aged 7–12. UNICEF calls it one of the worst civilian casualty incidents in decades.
All DayMilitary
Operation True Promise IV: 165 missiles + 541 drones at UAE; 97 missiles + 283 drones at Kuwait; 65 missiles at Qatar; 61 missiles + 34 drones at Bahrain.
All DayPolitics
UN Security Council holds emergency session. UK, France and Germany condemn counter-strikes. Oman expresses disappointment ‘active negotiations’ were abandoned.
02
1 March 2026
Leadership Vacuum — Regional Escalation
~06:00Politics
Ali Larijani announces Interim Leadership Council. US initial strikes have hit 1,000 targets inside Iran.
MorningMilitary
Iranian missile kills 9 in Beit Shemesh. IRGC targets USS Abraham Lincoln — first 3 US troops killed. Golestan Palace UNESCO site damaged.
All DayHumanitarian
UN Human Rights Chief Turk expresses deep shock. OHCHR: hostilities have impacted 12 states, destroying homes, airports, energy infrastructure.
03
2 March 2026
Hezbollah Enters — Lebanon Front Opens
MorningMilitary
Hezbollah launches first attacks on northern Israel since Nov 2024. Israel responds with 250+ strikes across Lebanon — at least 50 killed, 330+ injured.
MorningHumanitarian
Bahrain: missile debris kills worker. Kuwait: girl dies from shrapnel. Jordan: 28 injured. Saudi Arabia: 2 killed, 12 wounded in Al Kharj.
MorningEnergy
IRGC announces Strait of Hormuz closed — ‘any vessel attempting to pass will be set ablaze.’
04
3–4 March 2026
Hormuz Closure — Hezbollah Strikes Tel Aviv
3 MarMilitary
IRIB and parliament hit. IDF: ~2,500 strikes with 6,000+ munitions. Hezbollah targets Tel Aviv. NATO intercepts Iranian missile entering Turkish airspace.
3–4 MarEnergy
Hormuz effectively closed: tanker traffic drops ~70%, ~150 ships stranded. Kuwaiti tanker hit by sea drone. Tanker Safeen Prestige sinks; 3 crew missing.
3–4 MarHumanitarian
Explosions in Erbil: airport guard killed, French soldiers injured. Families flee southern Lebanon. ITUC condemns strikes as ‘irresponsible and illegal.’
06
5–6 March 2026
Displacement Surges — Phase Two
5–6 MarMilitary
Air dominance achieved; Phase 2 targets defence industry. Iran’s missile rate collapses from 480 to a handful. 500+ ballistic missiles and ~2,000 drones fired total. Russia reportedly sharing intelligence with Iran.
5–6 MarHumanitarian
UNICEF: ~180 children killed in Iran incl. 168 girls at Minab school. Mercy Corps: up to 500K Lebanese could be displaced. OCHA activates contingency plans across 7 countries. 30K+ Syrians flee Lebanon.
6 MarPolitics
Trump: ‘There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’
08
7–8 March 2026
New Supreme Leader — Lebanon Toll Mounts
7–8 MarPolitics
Assembly of Experts elects Mojtaba Khamenei (56) as third supreme leader under IRGC pressure. Pezeshkian signals willingness to end war. Lebanese FM bans Hezbollah military activities.
7–8 MarHumanitarian
Red Crescent: 6,668+ civilian units targeted. 41 killed in Nabi Sheet, Lebanon. OCHA: 294 killed, 1,000+ injured in Lebanon. By 8 Mar: 400 killed incl. 83 children, 500K+ displaced.
8 MarMilitary
Strikes target Tehran oil storage and refineries for first time. RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus struck by Hezbollah drone.
7 MarEnergy
IRGC strikes tankers Prima and Louis P. US destroys 17 Iranian warships incl. IRIS Dena torpedoed off Sri Lanka.
10
9–10 March 2026
Isfahan Heritage Struck — Missile Rate Collapses
9–10 MarMilitary
Strikes damage UNESCO sites in Isfahan: Naqsh-e Jahan, Chehel Sotoun, Ali Qapu, Shah Mosque. Rashk Palace destroyed. CENTCOM: 5,000+ targets; missile launches down 90%.
10 MarHumanitarian
Iran: 1,330+ killed, 17,000+ injured. 17,000+ buildings damaged, 120+ schools destroyed. Amnesty: 270+ children killed across MENA.
10 MarDiplomacy
Lavrov-Araghchi phone call. China’s special envoy conducts shuttle diplomacy; FM Wang Yi calls Israeli FM. China: goal is ‘immediate ceasefire.’
10 MarEnergy
Brent crude surges above $100/barrel. Ras Tanura refinery fire from Iranian drone. Qatar suspends LNG production.
12
11–12 March 2026
UNICEF Warning — 4.1 Million Displaced
11–12 MarHumanitarian
UNICEF: ‘catastrophic for millions of children.’ 1,100+ children killed/injured. UNHCR: 3.2M displaced in Iran. UN: 4.1M+ displaced regionally. Lebanon: 816K+ registered displaced incl. 285K children.
11 MarMilitary
IRGC: ‘not one litre of oil’ will pass Hormuz. 5,500+ targets struck. Israeli strikes hit Imad Tower, Beirut. Lebanon: 570+ killed, 1,444 injured.
11–12 MarEnergy
3 ships hit in Hormuz; 10 attacks total, 7 seafarers killed. Iran sends 11.7M barrels to China. Oil spikes to ~$120/bbl. Goldman: US recession odds 25%.
12 MarHumanitarian
CFR: war ‘breaking global humanitarian aid efforts.’ Gaza: strike hits displacement site. Aid drops to ~485 pallets/day (vs 2,240 ceasefire avg).
12 MarPolitics
Mojtaba Khamenei’s first statement: pledges Hormuz closed, attacks on US bases. 250+ US organisations call to halt war funding.
14
13–14 March 2026
Kharg Island Struck — Ceasefire Rejected
13 MarMilitary
6 US aircrew dead after crash in Iraq. Trump: ‘most powerful bombing raid in history’ on Kharg Island (~90% of Iran’s oil exports). 15,000+ targets struck. 10,000 Merops drones deployed.
13–14 MarEnergy
Oil hits $100+/bbl again. US gas $3.675 avg. Turkey/India/Saudi ships pass Hormuz. Iran considers yuan-denominated oil. Oxford Economics: $140/bbl = eurozone contraction.
13–14 MarHumanitarian
Iran: 1,444 killed, 18,551 injured (ages 8 months–88 years). 25+ hospitals damaged. Hengaw: 4,400+ military killed. IOM: 19M+ already displaced pre-conflict.
14 MarDiplomacy
Trump rebuffs ceasefire efforts. Iran rejects ceasefire until strikes end, demands compensation. Turkish FM: Iranians ‘feel betrayed’ — were in active talks when attacked.
14 MarPolitics
Trump: Iran ready to negotiate but ‘terms aren’t good enough.’ Dismisses gas prices as ‘small price to pay.’
Note: All figures as reported by cited sources as of 14 March 2026 and subject to revision. Casualty data from Iran is particularly difficult to independently verify due to restricted media access. This timeline draws on reporting from Al Jazeera, Reuters, BBC, CNN, NPR, CNBC, Washington Post, as well as UN agencies (OCHA, UNHCR, UNICEF, IOM, OHCHR) and conflict data from ACLED and Critical Threats/ISW.

ACLED Iran Crisis — Strikes by Country

28 February – 14 March 2026  |  1,852 total events across 16 countries & maritime zones

1,852
Total Strike Events
1,463
Successful Strikes
389
Intercepted Strikes
79%
Strike Success Rate
Source: ACLED — Iran Crisis Live Map  |  Data as of 14 Mar 2026, 10:00 CET. Successful = strike reached target; Intercepted = strike neutralised by defence.

Displacement & Cross-Border Movement

The map below tracks verified displacement flows across the affected region. Internal displacement and cross-border movements are drawn from UNHCR operational data as of 10 March 2026.

Legend
Internal displacement
Returns to origin
Cross-border displacement

Lebanon — Sub-National Displacement

The map below shows conflict-related internal displacement events in Lebanon as reported by IDMC. Each circle represents a displacement event; its size is proportional to the number of persons displaced. Click any circle for full event details including sources.

IDP
>830K
(MoSA)
Self-registered Internally Displaced People (IDP)
Collective shelters
130K
(DRM)
Displaced in Collective Shelters
Shelters
612
(DRM)
Shelters
Killed
773
(MoPH)
People Killed
Injured
1,933
(MoPH)
People Injured

6 Humanitarian Aspects to Watch

Gaza · West Bank · East Jerusalem  |  March 2026

Sources: TNH · ACAPS · OCHA · UNRWA · WHO · Reuters · Al Jazeera

Context Media coverage of the US-Israeli war on Iran (launched 28 February 2026) has largely focused on military operations and regime change. Yet the conflict is compounding a pre-existing catastrophe across the Occupied Palestinian Territory. The six aspects below are the humanitarian threads in Palestine that risk being overshadowed but must not be lost.
Aid
485/day
Pallets (vs 2,240 ceasefire avg)
Health
3,145
Attacks on Healthcare (since Oct 2023)
Blocked
18,000
Patients Awaiting Evacuation
Killed
747
Health Workers Killed in Gaza
Education
200M+
Children — Education Disrupted
NGO
6
Palestinian Orgs Sanctioned
01
Aid Access
Gaza Aid Access and Humanitarian Corridors

On 28 Feb, simultaneous with the Iran strikes, Israel closed all Gaza crossings — triggering immediate aid collapse.

The Iran war provided a pretext for a near-total blockade: aid fell from 2,240 pallets/day (ceasefire average) to 485/day in the first week. Rafah remains closed; 18,000 patients await evacuation. Food prices rose 200–300% (UNICEF). Fuel rationing suspended waste collection and cut water production. The partial reopening of Kerem Shalom on 3 March under US pressure brought relief that is inadequate: WHO states 200 trucks/day enter vs. 600 needed.

Source Evidence
All crossings incl. Rafah closed. Humanitarian movements, medical evacuations, staff rotations suspended.
3,424 pallets offloaded 27 Feb–5 Mar (~485/day vs 2,240 ceasefire avg). Kerem Shalom partially reopened 3 Mar; Rafah, Zikim closed. 46% essential medicines out of stock.
R05 — Humanitarian aid and medical supplies unable to reach Gaza city since January 2026 due to Israeli restrictions.
Israel re-opened Kerem Shalom on 2 March reportedly under US pressure. On same day as Iran bombing, Israel shut both Gaza border crossings citing ‘security adjustments.’
WHO: ~200 trucks/day vs 600 needed. 18,000 patients still awaiting medical evacuation. UNICEF: food prices up 200–300%.
02
Health
Systematic Attacks on Health Care

3,145 incidents of violence against or obstruction of health care in OPT since Oct 2023 — >95% attributed to Israeli forces.

Gaza’s healthcare system is the most attacked in the world in this conflict. The ACAPS dataset records 747 health workers killed and 361 arrested in Gaza; 438 facilities damaged; and 500+ obstructions of emergency services in the West Bank. Since the Iran war, Nasser Hospital has partially suspended operations, ambulances are being blocked at checkpoints, and a woman in labour in Salfit was forced to cross a checkpoint on foot. This is systematic — not incidental.

Source Evidence
3,145 incidents of violence against or obstruction of health care, Oct 2023–Dec 2025. Gaza: 2,236 incidents, 438 facilities struck, 747 health workers killed, 361 arrested; 131 drone attacks on health care.
Nasser Hospital (Khan Yunis): operations suspended; MSF halted non-critical activities 14 Feb. Ambulances blocked at checkpoints on Salah Al-Din street.
West Bank: ambulances held at gunpoint, searched, forced onto longer routes. Salfit: woman in labour forced to cross checkpoint on foot. Mobile clinics suspended.
Beita (Nablus): ambulance attacked by settlers. Salwad (Ramallah): ambulance driver beaten by Israeli forces. Salfit: Hospital-Farkha road sealed with earth mounds.
03
Protection
Settler Violence and West Bank Lockdown

Israeli settlers exploiting Iran war movement curbs: at least 5 Palestinians killed since 28 Feb — matching 28 months of settler killings in weeks.

From day one of the Iran war, Israel imposed a near-total lockdown across the West Bank — iron gates, earth mounds, inter-governorate movement bans. Rights groups and medics report settlers are actively exploiting these curbs to attack villages, with military roadblocks preventing ambulances reaching victims. OCHA counts 180 Palestinians displaced since 28 Feb (1,500 since Jan 2026); the EU calls the level of violence ‘unacceptable’. Only 2% of documented settler violence cases result in charges.

Source Evidence
Repeated Israeli forces raids on West Bank refugee camps: live fire, rubber bullets, stun grenades, detention of children, home conversions to military barracks.
5+ Palestinians killed by settlers since 28 Feb. Military roadblocks preventing ambulances reaching victims. OCHA: in 28 months, 24 killed by settlers — same toll now reached in weeks.
Israeli leaflets ban movement between West Bank governorates. Two brothers killed in Qaryut. Three killed overnight in Abu Falah. New settlement established overlooking Nablus.
OCHA / AFP
14 Mar 2026
180 Palestinians displaced since 28 Feb; 1,500 since Jan 2026. Displacement in 2026 at 90% of 2025 full-year OCHA figures.
04
Education
Attacks on Education — Schools as Targets

Gaza schools, refugee camps and university campuses attacked in January 2026; Iran war compounds disruption for 200 million children across the region.

The ACAPS dataset documents a consistent pattern of attacks on education across the OPT in January 2026 alone, predating the Iran war: live fire at Birzeit University (7 injured), arson at a Nablus secondary school, a school bus attacked in Jericho, a girl shot inside Halawa School in Jabalia, and school access blocked in Jerusalem. The Iran war has compounded this: UNICEF reports millions of children out of school across the region.

Source Evidence
15-year-old girl shot by Israeli forces inside Halawa School, Jabalia city, North Gaza.
Birzeit University (Ramallah) raided: live fire, rubber-coated bullets, 7 injured. Jalud secondary school (Nablus) stormed by settlers at 02:10, classroom set ablaze.
School bus attacked by settlers in Jericho. School access obstructed by Israeli forces in Kafr Aqab (Jerusalem).
Iran war captures global media attention; Gaza and West Bank risk being sidelined. UNICEF: millions of children out of school across the region.
05
Displacement
Mass Displacement — Lebanon, Gaza, West Bank Converging

830K+ self-registered displaced in Lebanon; 11,000+ crossed into Syria; tens of thousands who never returned home after 2024 ceasefire.

Lebanon’s displacement crisis is feeding directly into the OPT situation. Tens of thousands in south Lebanon and parts of Beirut have fled, at least 11,000 crossed into Syria, and many never returned after the 2024 Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire. Regionally, 4.1 million are displaced. In the West Bank, missile fragments and interceptor shrapnel are landing across Ramallah, Salfit and Nablus. UNRWA has served 258,689 displaced persons in the OPT since October 2023 — but its mandate is under political attack and funding uncertain.

Source Evidence
Tens of thousands fled south Lebanon and parts of Beirut. At least 11,000 crossed into Syria. Pre-existing displacement: tens of thousands who never returned home despite the 2024 ceasefire.
West Bank: 1,062 Palestinians killed Oct 2023–7 Mar 2026, at least 231 children. Heightened movement restrictions since 28 Feb. UNRWA served 258,689 displaced persons since Oct 2023.
Gaza: population entirely dependent on steady external flow of goods. Returns from abroad, medical evacuations, staff rotations all simultaneously suspended.
06
Humanitarian Space
Shrinking Humanitarian Space — NGO Bans, Sanctions and Aid Obstruction

6 Palestinian aid organisations sanctioned; dozens of NGOs barred; WFP’s World Central Kitchen forced to pause distributions.

The Iran war is providing political cover for a parallel offensive against humanitarian actors in the OPT. Six Palestinian aid organisations were sanctioned by the US Treasury in January 2026, freezing operations for medical care, food distribution, amputee support and prisoner advocacy. Since the Iran war began, Israel barred Oxfam, MSF and dozens of other NGOs from operating in Palestinian territories under new vetting rules requiring staff lists — a direct attack on humanitarian independence. WFP’s World Central Kitchen paused Gaza distributions entirely.

Source Evidence
US Treasury sanctioned 6 Palestinian aid organisations on 22 Jan 2026. Organisations involved in medical care, food distribution, amputee support and prisoner advocacy.
Oxfam, MSF and dozens of others barred from operating in Palestinian territories; refusal to provide staff lists under Israeli vetting rules. Supreme Court issued temporary injunction.
‘With the conflict in Iran and the closing of the borders, World Central Kitchen will be forced to temporarily pause meal distribution in Gaza.’
Aid operations simultaneously facing: crossing blockades, humanitarian movement suspension, staff rotation bans, medical evacuation suspension, sanctions threats, and NGO vetting rules.
Compiled 15 March 2026. Sources: TNH Analysis · ACAPS Protection Risks Monitoring · OCHA · UNRWA · UNICEF · WHO · Reuters · Al Jazeera. All figures subject to revision.
Iran Palestine Lebanon Iran IHL Gaza Lebanon Displacement Afghan returns
Downloads & Resources
OPT_Humanitarian_Briefing_March2026.pdf
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Middle_East_Conflict_Timeline.pdf
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ACLED_Iran_Crisis_Strikes_March2026.xlsx
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