Deep Dive

Internal Displacement in 2025

2026-05-15 5 views 29 min read
82.2M
IDPs end-2025 (stock)
32.3M
New conflict displacements (flow)
13.6M
Disaster IDPs end-2025 (stock)
147
Countries reporting

IDMC's GRID 2026 release places the world's internally displaced population at 82.2 million at the end of 2025 — down 1.5% from 2024's record 83.5 million. The modern era of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre's (IDMC) Global Internal Displacement Database (GIDD) and its accompanying Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) began in 2016, with disaster figures comprehensively included from 2019 onward; 2025 is the first year in this series in which the year-end stock has fallen. The drop is small and arithmetic: large reported reductions in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Syria and Lebanon offset record new displacement elsewhere.

New conflict displacements during 2025 reached 32.3 million — the highest annual conflict flow on record and a 60% jump on 2024. People still displaced by disasters at year-end rose 37% to 13.6 million, also a record. So while the headline stock dropped, the underlying pressure on protection systems intensified along both dimensions.

The regional shifts are sharper than the global headline suggests. Sub-Saharan Africa's stock fell for the first time since IDMC began comprehensive reporting, the Americas reached a new high of 10.5 million, MENA accounted for 41% of global conflict flow, and South Asia's conflict flow grew nearly 49-fold to 548,000. IDMC's own framing is direct: as conflicts intensify, "it is often the same people who are uprooted again and again, yet the systems meant to protect them are being dismantled."

Headline finding · GRID 2026 Conflict displacement reaches record high. The Democratic Republic of Congo alone recorded nearly 10 million new conflict displacements — a national record. MENA accounted for 40% of global conflict movements. The drop in total stock should not be read as humanitarian progress.
Methodology: IDP stock = people still internally displaced at year-end (snapshot — not summable across years). Flow = new displacement movements during the year (a person displaced twice within the same year is counted twice — summable across years). Source: IDMC Global Internal Displacement Database (GIDD) and Internal Displacement Updates, retrieved via API on 15 May 2026. 147 countries reported 2025 figures, against 169 in 2024 — IDMC typically revises the prior year upward as additional national reporting arrives.

Where 2025 happened

The geography of the year divides cleanly. Conflict displacement concentrated in a belt running from West Africa through the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, and into South Asia. Disaster displacement concentrated on the other side of the world — the Pacific typhoon corridor through the Philippines, China and Indonesia, with a separate large signal from Pakistan's mid-year monsoon.

2025 displacement hotspots — interactive
Click any marker for country detail. Radius scales with displacement figure (log).
Conflict — new displacements 2025 Disaster — new displacements 2025 Tiles: CartoDB Light · Data: IDMC GIDD
Top countries by 2025 new-displacement flow. Source: IDMC GIDD, retrieved 15 May 2026.

The map above is centred on the conflict-and-disaster axis that defines 2025: the African / MENA / South Asia belt where the year's record conflict flow concentrated, and the East Asia / Pacific corridor where its disaster flow concentrated. Toggle Conflict / Disaster / All to isolate either narrative.

The globe is centred on Africa to keep the dominant 2025 story — DR Congo, Sudan, Palestine, Syria, the broader Sahel — in a single frame. The Philippines (10.7M new disaster displacements) and the rest of East Asia / Pacific sit on the eastern horizon; the Americas (Haiti, Colombia, Ecuador) on the western horizon.


Stock dips for the first time; flow keeps climbing

Global IDP stock more than doubled across the decade IDMC has tracked — from 38.9 million in 2016 to a record 83.5 million in 2024. The first three years of the series (2016–2018) showed only modest growth, almost entirely conflict-driven. The jump to 49.1 million in 2019 reflects IDMC's first comprehensive year of disaster-displacement reporting, not a sudden uptick in actual displacement. From 2019 onward the line is monotonically upward — until 2025, the first year in the series where stock falls.

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Annual IDP stock, 2016–2025
IDP stock (stacked bars, left axis, millions) and total new displacements (line, right axis, millions). *2019 is the first year disaster figures were comprehensively reported.
Source: IDMC GIDD, retrieved 15 May 2026
What "stock down" actually means The 2025 stock decline of 1.2M is dwarfed by the 32.3M new conflict displacements during the year. The arithmetic works because IDMC recorded an unusually high volume of returns and stock reductions in Sudan (−2.4M), DR Congo (−2.0M), Syria (−1.4M), Lebanon (−0.9M) and Chad (−0.9M). In every one of those contexts, active conflict and cross-border refugee outflows mean stock can decline without anyone going home safely.

Record high, with DR Congo at the centre

The 2025 conflict flow is the most concentrated in the GIDD series. The Democratic Republic of Congo recorded 9.75 million new conflict displacements — IDMC's headline figure for the year and the country's own historical record, up from 5.35M in 2024. DRC alone accounts for roughly 30% of global conflict flow. Palestine added 2.76M as escalating violence and protracted displacement continued. Sudan contributed 1.73M, Haiti 0.98M, South Sudan 0.86M.

Regionally, MENA generated 13.4 million new conflict displacements — 41% of the global total — driven by ongoing escalation across multiple countries in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa added 14.4 million.

Top 12 countries by new conflict displacements, 2025
Millions of new displacement movements during 2025
Source: IDMC GIDD

The world's storms landed on the Pacific

Disaster flow in 2025 — 29.9M new displacements — was down sharply from 2024's 45.8M, but the headline obscures a geographic concentration. East Asia and the Pacific generated 17.5M new disaster displacements alone — over half the global total. The Philippines, China and Indonesia all recorded their highest disaster displacement in a decade as powerful typhoons and end-of-year storms struck the region in sequence. South Asia's disaster flow halved to 4.6M after a milder monsoon.

🌀 18.0M Storm displacement · 60%
🌊 7.8M Flood displacement · 26%
🌐 2.4M Earthquake displacement · 8%
🌪
Top 15 countries by new disaster displacements, 2025
Millions of new displacement movements during 2025
Source: IDMC GIDD
ISO3CountryHazardDisplacedEvent
PHLPhilippinesStorm3,594,175Typhoon Fung-wong (locally Uwan)
PHLPhilippinesStorm3,183,303Typhoon Kalmaegi (locally Tino)
PAKPakistanFlood2,819,767Punjab monsoon flooding, July 2025
PHLPhilippinesStorm1,876,966TC Mitag (Miray) — Philippines, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Macao, Viet Nam
CHLChileEarthquake1,500,000Tsunami, 30 July 2025 — Chile, Ecuador
IDNIndonesiaStorm1,126,212TC Senyar + Northeast Monsoon, North Sumatra
PHLPhilippinesStorm1,121,255TC Wipha (Crising)
CUBCubaStorm735,000Caribbean hurricane — DOM, CUB, BHS, JAM, HTI

Top 8 single events by new disaster displacement, 2025. Source: IDMC GIDD disaster events feed.

One country, one storm season The Philippines alone displaced 10.7M people via disasters in 2025 — over a third of the global total. Four of the year's eight largest single events struck the same country. Disaster stock there sits at 0.37M at year-end, meaning the national system absorbed and re-housed the vast majority within the year. That capacity does not exist in most of the rest of the top 15.

Eight of the ten biggest IDP populations remain 100% conflict-driven

Stock reflects what flow leaves behind. Sudan remains the world's largest internal displacement crisis at 9.1M, even after the 2.4M reduction. Colombia (7.2M), Afghanistan (7.0M), Syria (6.0M), Bangladesh (5.5M) and DR Congo (4.9M) round out the top six. In the top 10, conflict accounts for 100% of stock in seven countries (Sudan, Colombia, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, Somalia, Burkina Faso), 95% in Nigeria, 93% in Myanmar, and 87% in DR Congo. Only Bangladesh is majority disaster-driven (89%) — its 5.5M is the most striking entry in the table, jumping from 0.59M in 2024 (+831%) as protracted monsoon and cyclone displacement reclassified into the year-end stock figure.

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Top 15 countries by total IDP stock, end-2025
Stacked: conflict (blue) and disaster (amber) shares, millions of people
Source: IDMC GIDD

Five regional stories the global headline hides

SSA Sub-Saharan Africa

31.6M ▼ 18%

First decline in a decade. Stock fell from 38.7M to 31.6M, driven by reported reductions in Sudan, DR Congo and Chad. The region still hosts 38% of the world's IDP population and generated 14.4M new conflict displacements in 2025.

AMR The Americas

10.5M ▲ Record

A new regional high. Haiti, Colombia and Ecuador all recorded record-level displacement during 2025. Latin America's combined conflict-and-criminal-violence flow rose to 1.6M new movements.

MENA Middle East & North Africa

14.2M · 41% of conflict flow

Total stock declined from 16.6M to 14.2M as Syria and Lebanon reported returns. But new conflict displacements in the region tripled to 13.4M — 41% of the global conflict flow — driven by Palestine and the wider regional escalation.

EAP East Asia & Pacific

19.6M · 1/3 of global flow

About one-third of the world's new displacements in 2025 happened in this region — driven almost entirely by storms in the Philippines (10.7M), China (3.5M) and Indonesia (1.5M). The decade-high disaster signal here is the year's most concentrated regional story.

SAS South Asia

+49× conflict flow

Conflict displacement in the region grew from 11,200 in 2024 to 548,000 in 2025 — a nearly 49-fold increase — driven primarily by Pakistan's border crossings (251K), Afghanistan (168K) and India's Manipur (128K). Disaster flow halved to 4.6M after a milder monsoon.

ECA Europe & Central Asia

5.9M · Stable

Ukraine continues to anchor the region with 3.7M IDPs. Total flow fell to 0.46M as the active-conflict pulse from Ukraine moved from new displacement into protracted stock.


Bangladesh climbs; Sudan, DRC, Syria descend

The biggest 2024→2025 stock movements split sharply between disaster-driven growth and conflict-driven returns. Bangladesh's +4.95M, Afghanistan's +1.49M and Cambodia's +0.52M reflect monsoon, drought and conflict displacement settling into the protracted column. Sudan, DR Congo, Syria, Lebanon and Chad show large stock reductions — driven partly by reported returns, partly by IDMC methodology revisions, and partly by cross-border refugee outflows that remove people from the IDP count without bringing them home.

Biggest stock changes, 2024 → 2025
Top 5 worsened (red) and top 5 improved (green), absolute change in IDP stock (millions)
Source: IDMC GIDD. "Improvement" should not be read as "safety achieved" — see callout below.
Reading stock declines carefully Sudan's −2.4M stock reduction coincides with the largest refugee outflow in the region's recent history and continued active conflict. Lebanon's −0.92M reflects partial post-ceasefire returns into still-precarious conditions. The most plausible interpretation in each case is that stock fell because people crossed an international border, because IDMC reclassified pre-2025 figures, or because returns happened under contested safety conditions. Reading stock decline as humanitarian progress requires a returns assessment that, in most of these contexts, does not yet exist.

Twenty-two fewer countries reporting

147 countries reported 2025 figures to IDMC as of the API refresh on 15 May 2026, against 169 in 2024. IDMC routinely revises previous years upward as additional national reporting arrives — meaning the 2025 numbers in this analysis are an early cut, not a final.

Several known crisis contexts have not yet submitted full 2025 estimates: a subset of Sahel countries with active conflict, Pacific island states routinely exposed to slow-onset disasters, and a small number of Central and West African countries. IDMC's near-real-time IDU (Internal Displacement Updates) feed for the same window indicates that these are reporting delays, not absences of displacement. Headline numbers should be expected to move when GRID 2027 publishes the full revision next May.


What 2025 means for 2026 humanitarian programming

01
Plan for flow, not just stock
The 60% conflict-flow surge is the operational reality for 2026 needs. Plans pegged to end-2025 stock figures will materially under-budget for new arrivals, particularly in DR Congo, Palestine, Haiti and the Sahel.
02
Treat disaster stock as protracted
13.6M people displaced by disasters and still not home — a record. Bangladesh's stock leap to 5.5M signals that disaster displacement increasingly converges on conflict displacement in duration. Durable-solutions frameworks need to follow.
03
Build East Asia & Pacific response capacity
A third of global displacement now happens in one regional disaster corridor. National disaster-management capacity in the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam re-housed people within the same year — that capacity is the structural difference between disaster displacement and disaster catastrophe elsewhere.
04
Don't celebrate the headline dip
"Total IDPs down 1.5%" is the easiest headline to write and the most misleading. Conflict flow at record highs and disaster stock at record highs are the two numbers that should drive the 2026 humanitarian funding ask.
05
Invest in the reporting gap
22 countries that reported in 2024 have not yet reported 2025. National statistical capacity for IDP tracking is patchy, donor-dependent, and quietly defunding. Closing this gap is cheaper than re-discovering the displaced after the fact.
06
Read returns with a returns lens
Stock reductions in Sudan, DR Congo, Syria, Lebanon and Chad coincide with active conflict, refugee outflows, or fragile ceasefires. Returns assessments — what conditions did people return to? — must accompany any donor narrative built on stock declines.

"As conflicts are intensifying, it is often the same people who are uprooted again and again. Yet the systems meant to protect them are being dismantled."

— Tracy Lucas, IDMC Director
internal displacement IDMC IDP conflict climate
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