Middle East Situation Update #1

From December Protests to Military Escalation

When protests erupted across all 31 of Iran’s provinces on 28 December 2025 — triggered by an economic collapse that has seen the rial lose roughly half its value in 2025 alone and inflation projected above 60% for 2026 — the international community began assessing the protection needs of people in Iran and available exit corridors. Two months later, that question has taken on an entirely different dimension: the United States and Israel have launched joint military operations, and every aerial corridor in or out of Iran has been closed, significantly affecting the civilian population’s ability to move to safety.

This analysis traces the full arc from the December protests through to 28 February 2026, examining Iran’s land, air, rail and maritime crossing infrastructure in its current conflict-disrupted state. It provides a systematic assessment of the migration management frameworks and border policies of each of Iran’s seven neighbouring states — a critical factor for determining how many people from Iran may be able to seek safety, through which corridors, and under what protection frameworks.

Civilian Movement Infrastructure — Protection Access Dashboard

Neighbouring States’ Reception Capacity & Protection Frameworks

Projected Displacement Flows & Protection Gap Analysis

Land Corridors: Access to Safety & Protection Barriers

As the military situation continues to develop, the land corridor picture for people seeking safety is defined by a significant gap between physical infrastructure and accessible protection: the two most accessible exits — Türkiye and Armenia — remain physically open, yet both are operating under conditions that make mass movement deeply difficult. Türkiye has deployed additional security along all borders including Iran and confirmed comprehensive border management measures. Armenia’s Agarak/Norduz crossing remains available, but absorption capacity is negligible for anything beyond small numbers.

The Iraq corridor has been reoriented entirely for military rather than civilian movement. While Iraqi Kurdistan technically offers visa-free entry to Iranian passport holders and hosts UNHCR infrastructure, both the KRI and federal Iraq have been struck by Iranian retaliatory action directed at U.S. military installations. The Shalamcheh and Khosravi crossings — already reportedly used in January to facilitate armed group movements into Iran — are now operational vectors of the wider conflict rather than civilian exit routes.

Aerial Corridors: Civilian Evacuation & Airspace Closures

The aviation disruption that began during the January protest period has escalated to a total closure. CAO.IRI has closed Iranian airspace indefinitely. Iraq has simultaneously closed its airspace — severing the critical Baghdad and Erbil flight information regions. Israeli airspace is shut under a 48-hour state of emergency. The UAE temporarily closed following reports of Iranian missile activity. Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan have also closed amid retaliatory missile activity. In a single morning, at least eight of the most strategically significant airspaces in the Middle East have become inaccessible.

The compounding factor is the simultaneous internet blackout inside Iran, confirmed at 4% of normal connectivity (NetBlocks). Mobile phone services have also been cut. Passengers cannot access airline portals, embassy emergency lines, or receive digital alerts. Only Yerevan, Armenia offers a viable aerial exit once overland travel to Armenia has been completed.

Rail Corridors: The Tehran–Van Lifeline

The Tehran–Van railway — resumed March 2025 after five years — remains Iran’s only international passenger rail link. At 560 outbound seats per week maximum, its strategic value as a displacement relief valve is minimal, though individually it represents the cheapest ($27) and most accessible exit for those near Tehran or Tabriz. The border crossing Kapıköy/Razi was confirmed open 12 January; current status requires monitoring. The internet blackout makes booking, border coordination, and passenger information virtually impossible.

Maritime Routes: Caspian Lifeline & Gulf Vulnerabilities

Iran’s maritime geography offers one thin lifeline and a cluster of enormous trade vulnerabilities. The Bandar Anzali–Astrakhan Caspian ferry route — irregular, no fixed schedule — is geographically the most insulated from today’s conflict. It connects to Russia, whose Caspian waters remain available. The route is likely to see surging demand.

In the Persian Gulf, the picture is the reverse. Shahid Rajaee Port at Bandar Abbas — handling 85% of Iran’s port throughput and 2.39 million TEUs in 2024 — sits in the strategic shadow of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits. An Iranian official declared all U.S. and Israeli assets “legitimate targets.” Even partial Strait disruption would be a global supply shock.

Humanitarian Implications & Preparedness Priorities

The pattern that defined Iran’s crossing infrastructure during January — high cargo capacity coexisting with near-zero civilian movement capacity — has been significantly intensified by today’s military operations. Across all four modalities: air closed entirely; rail at maximum 560 outbound seats with uncertain status; maritime limited to a single irregular Caspian ferry; and land crossings open in two directions only (Türkiye, Armenia), both with limited capacity for large-scale movement.

The protection landscape across Iran’s seven neighbours reveals a system-wide gap. Türkiye has confirmed comprehensive border management measures. Armenia offers temporary shelter but no durable solution. Azerbaijan, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan range from restricted to actively dangerous. Meanwhile, the global resettlement system is under severe strain.