The escalation that began on 28 February 2026 with a joint US-Israeli military offensive against Iran has rapidly evolved into a multi-country humanitarian crisis. Within six weeks, the conflict has displaced an estimated 4.25 million people internally across Iran and Lebanon alone, while triggering cross-border movements affecting Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Iraq, Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.
The humanitarian consequences extend well beyond the immediate theatre of conflict. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which 25% of globally traded oil and 20% of LNG transit — has driven oil prices up approximately 50%, disrupted fertiliser supply chains across Africa and South Asia, and threatened food security for an additional 45 million people globally. Maritime war-risk insurance premiums have risen 25–50%, effectively cutting off Gulf shipping from global networks.
Response operations are critically underfunded. The Iran Flash Refugee Response Plan ($80M) is only 8% funded, while Lebanon's UNHCR requirement of $472M stands at just 14% funded. Of 43 official border crossing points along the borders of Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, 8 remain fully closed, severely constraining humanitarian access and population mobility.
Six Weeks of Escalation: Key Events
The crisis has unfolded at an extraordinary pace. What began as targeted strikes against Iran's military infrastructure quickly expanded into a regional confrontation involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and militia groups in Iraq — with cascading economic and humanitarian consequences across multiple continents.
Mass Displacement Across Two Primary Theatres
Internal displacement has reached crisis proportions in both Iran and Lebanon, with the scale and speed of population movements overwhelming existing response capacity. In Iran, the destruction of 115,000 civilian infrastructures has forced an estimated 250,000 people from their homes, while secondary displacement driven by ongoing insecurity now spans more than 20 provinces.
Iran: Up to 3.2 Million Displaced
Since the onset of the crisis, Iran's Ministry of Travel Coordination has reported at least one million population movements potentially associated with the conflict. Iran continues to host 1.65 million refugees and others in need of international protection, placing enormous strain on already limited services. UNHCR's Helpline received 32,000 calls between 1 March and 8 April, with financial assistance, shelter, and healthcare identified as the top three priority needs.
Lebanon: 1.05 Million IDPs
As of 7 April 2026, over 1 million people remain internally displaced in Lebanon, with approximately 88% residing outside collective shelters. A total of 138,744 individuals are accommodated across 678 government-designated collective sites — a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The 8 April strikes, which killed over 200 people in approximately 10 minutes, have triggered fresh waves of displacement, reversing any gains from the brief ceasefire announcement.
Demographic Profile of Cross-Border Arrivals in Syria
IOM DTM's Emergency Mobility Tracking recorded 139,364 individuals arriving across 1,159 locations in all 14 Syrian governorates. The demographic breakdown reveals significant child population exposure, with 43% of arrivals being children.
Regional Population Flows: 574,000+ Cross-Border Movements
The conflict has generated massive cross-border population movements across nine countries. IOM DTM's Mobility Monitoring Round 5 tracks flows along Iran's borders with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan, as well as Lebanon's border with Syria and Türkiye's border with Iran. Of the 43 official land border crossing points, 8 remain closed, 9 are partially open, and 26 are fully operational.
Weekly Crossings by Nationality
Most movements took place through Masnaa (233,729), followed by Mashari' Al-Qaa (115,654) and Arida (10,149). No crossings were recorded through El Aaboudieh, Jisr Qmar, or Matraba. As of 6 April, Al-Arida remained open only for pedestrians.
Weekly Flows Between Iran and Afghanistan
Protection concerns remain high, with returnees reporting worsening conditions in Tehran, Hormozgan, Fars, and Isfahan. Factory closures linked to airstrikes have impacted livelihoods, alongside reports of labour exploitation.
Weekly Flows by Nationality (Iran → Pakistan)
Movements occur primarily through Taftan-Mirjaveh (9,056) and Gabd-Kumb-Rimdan (2,498). Pakistani students represent the largest single category (21.7%), while Iranian drivers and unknown-purpose movements account for 40.3%.
Cross-Border Flows by Corridor (Total Individuals)
In Türkiye, crossings remain orderly with no signs of mass displacement — 52% of Iranian nationals crossing are families, primarily for tourism, business, and family visits. In Armenia, 4,381 of the 4,930 arrivals are Iranian nationals. Turkmenistan has evacuated over 500 third-country nationals through multiple land border crossings.
Escalating Needs Across Affected Populations
The scale and speed of displacement have generated severe humanitarian needs across all affected countries. In Syria, where 139,364 individuals have been recorded at arrival locations, 93% report needing cash assistance as their top priority. In Iran, 56,200 Afghan refugees have been assisted through helplines, counselling, legal aid, and multipurpose cash assistance since the start of the crisis.
Lebanon: Shelter Crisis and Protection Risks
Displaced Lebanese and Syrian families living outside collective shelters face harsh conditions, limited support, and growing protection risks. Over 89,000 people have been reached through information and awareness activities, and over 30,400 children and adults have received mental health and psychosocial support. UNHCR's Return due to Force Majeure programme has assisted 352 individuals with $100 cash grants since 1 April.
Demand for support has surged dramatically, with over 265,000 visits to UNHCR's HELP website since 2 March. Despite constraints, UNHCR and partners have supported more than 151,640 displaced people across 611 collective shelters with essential items, and reached over 31,170 individuals in hard-to-reach locations through coordinated convoys.
Afghanistan: Returns Under Pressure
Since the start of the crisis, some 88,800 Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan — 56,800 from Iran and 32,000 from Pakistan — bringing total Afghan returns in 2026 to over 364,500. In Afghanistan, 115,000 people are internally displaced, of whom 73% are women and children. Protection concerns have arisen at displacement sites, with authorities ordering IDPs in seven sites to return to their areas of origin.
From Regional Conflict to Global Crisis
The Middle East escalation has generated cascading humanitarian, economic, and security consequences far beyond the immediate conflict zone. ACAPS identifies four interconnected impact domains: energy and water security, economy and food security, conflict and social cohesion, and humanitarian needs and access.
Energy and Water Security
The Gulf region produces approximately a third of the world's crude oil and 17% of global natural gas. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively severed a critical artery of global trade. Qatar has halted LNG production at Ras Laffan, taking approximately 20% of global LNG export capacity offline. This has had immediate downstream effects on Pakistan, which depends on Qatar for 99% of its LNG imports.
Perhaps more alarmingly, attacks on desalination infrastructure threaten the water security of millions across the Gulf. Desalination provides 99% of Qatar's, 90% of Kuwait's, and 59% of Bahrain's freshwater supply. Strikes near Dubai's Jebel Ali and on facilities in Bahrain and Iran's Qeshm Island signal a dangerous new dimension of the conflict.
Economy, Shipping, and Food Security
The disruption to maritime trade has severed supply chains for key livelihood inputs across multiple continents. Gulf states account for more than 30% of global seaborne urea fertiliser exports, and their disruption directly threatens agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In the DRC, 45% of global sulphur exports transit the Strait of Hormuz, placing the country's copper and cobalt extraction industry at risk.
Israel's suspension of gas exports to Egypt and Jordan has cascading effects: Egypt depends on Israeli gas for around 60% of its supply, while Jordan relies on it for approximately 85%. Syria's Ministry of Energy has confirmed reducing electricity supply, leading to nationwide rolling blackouts and fuel queues with sales surging more than 300% above daily averages.
Remittance Disruptions
Countries across South Asia depend heavily on remittances from Gulf-based workers. In Nepal, Gulf workers account for 41% of all remittances. In Bangladesh, GCC countries contribute approximately 50% of all remittances, financing 47% of the country's imports. The conflict threatens to disrupt these critical financial lifelines at a time when households are already facing rising food costs driven by fertiliser shortages and import price inflation.
Response Under Strain: Critical Funding Gaps
UNHCR operations across the affected regions remain critically underfunded at a time when humanitarian needs and operational risks are increasing rapidly. The funding shortfalls risk creating what agencies describe as a “crisis within a crisis” — with the ability to scale up preparedness, protection and response critically constrained.
| Response Plan | Requirement | Funded | People in Need | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Flash RRP | $80M | 8% | 2.8M | UNHCR ($36.2M) |
| Lebanon Flash Appeal | $308.3M | 14% | 1M | UNHCR/Partners |
| UNHCR SWA (AFG situation) | $454M | 15% | N/A | UNHCR |
| UNHCR Iraq | $61M | 28% | N/A | UNHCR |
| Türkiye + Armenia | $219M | 42% | N/A | UNHCR |
| Afghanistan HNRP | $1.7B | N/A | 21.9M | OCHA |
Compounding Crises Across Asia
The escalation is generating severe spillover effects across Asia and the Pacific, compounding existing humanitarian crises. OCHA reports that 45.5 million people across the region are now in need under ongoing response plans, with $3.6 billion in funding required. The main impact stems from rising oil prices, reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and disrupted supply chains for food, fertiliser, and fuel.
| Country | People in Need | Funding | Key Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 21.9M | $1.7B | 54K returnees since crisis; 115K new IDPs; border provinces overwhelmed |
| Pakistan | 2.8M | $151M | Fuel +24%, wheat flour +28%; 7.6K crossed from Iran |
| Myanmar | 16.2M | $890M | 90% fuel imported; rationing imposed; cultivation threatened |
| Bangladesh | 1.9M | $698M | 50% remittances from GCC; fuel-sale limits; blackouts |
| Sri Lanka | 1.2M | $35M | Fuel rationing begun; transport and agriculture costs rising |
ACAPS Forward-Looking Scenarios
ACAPS has developed three potential scenarios to anticipate how humanitarian needs and access constraints may evolve over the next month. Each scenario considers likely consequences across energy and water security, economy and food security, conflict and social cohesion, and humanitarian needs and access.
Civilian Targeting and Protection Concerns
ACLED data reveals a sharp escalation in civilian targeting events across both Iran and Lebanon since the onset of hostilities. In Iran, the ACLED dataset documents 124 monthly records of civilian targeting events and fatalities from 2016 to 2026, with the February–March 2026 period representing a dramatic departure from historical patterns. In Lebanon, 3,224 admin-level records capture the geographic spread of violence.
ACAPS has documented 99 protection risk events in Iran and 121 in Lebanon, spanning categories including displacement, violence against civilians, restricted humanitarian access, and threats to specific population groups including women, children, refugees, and ethnic minorities.