El Niño 2026-27 in Eastern and Southern Africa: November 2026 Update

Since PRISM's September analysis, NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index has risen by 1.07°C, from +1.39°C for May to July to +2.46°C for August to October 2026, the highest value for that season since 1950 and the third highest for any season, after November to January 2015-16 (+2.59°C) and December to February 2015-16 (+2.50°C) (NOAA CPC ONI table). On 12 November NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory, put the chance of a strong to very strong event through January to March 2027 at more than 79%, and gave about 60% odds that October to December or November to January will exceed every El Niño since 1950 (CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion, 12 November 2026). The World Meteorological Organization expects the event to reach record strength by December (WMO, 9 November 2026).

According to OCHA, El Niño-linked heavy rains and flash floods affected at least 175,000 people in Somalia in October and displaced 51,000 (OCHA Somalia, October 2026 update); floods in Galkacyo district between 11 and 15 October affected about 90,000 people, according to WHO. By 9 November, 30 Somali rain stations had received their full Deyr seasonal normal, Galkacyo 390% of it, while Burao, Borama and Qardho stood at 16% to 39% (FAO SWALIM, 11 November 2026). In Kenya, rains and floods had affected nearly 5,000 families and displaced more than 2,500 by 11 November, according to Kenya Red Cross figures reported by OCHA. FEWS NET describes the June to September kiremt as the driest on record in many areas of Ethiopia (FEWS NET, October 2026), and OCHA cites FEWS NET's assessment of June to September 2026 as South Sudan's driest such season since 1981 (OCHA, 30 October 2026).

In Southern Africa, FEWS NET reported at the end of October that early rainfall was insufficient to support planting in most of Zimbabwe (FEWS NET Zimbabwe), that planting had yet to start across Malawi (FEWS NET Malawi) and that cumulative rainfall stayed below 50 mm across most of Zambia (FEWS NET Zambia). The Copernicus multi-model forecast issued in November gives 51% to 56% odds of below-normal rainfall for December to February in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, by PRISM's reading. SADC's Regional Preparedness Snapshot, presented to the region's disaster risk management ministers on 12 November, puts costed preparedness and response requirements at US$1.85 billion against approximately US$241 million available (SADC, 12 November 2026). The 2026 OCHA-coordinated plans for Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Madagascar and Mozambique were 45.6% funded on 12 November, up from 38.7% on 3 September, according to OCHA FTS as read by PRISM.

Chronology of the Season

Between 3 September and 12 November 2026, the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator released US$10 million from CERF for drought in South Sudan and Zimbabwe on 29 September, flood anticipatory action triggers were met in Somalia on 15 October and the readiness trigger in Uganda on 11 November, and the governments of Zimbabwe and Mozambique approved El Niño plans. The strip carries 14 events in 3 phases; the line behind it is NOAA's weekly Niño-3.4 anomaly, which ranged from +2.8°C to +3.4°C in the weeks from 2 September to 4 November.

Pacific Conditions

NOAA's 12 November discussion reports sea surface temperature anomalies above 4.0°C extending farther west across the eastern equatorial Pacific than in October, and the Niño-3.4 index reaching +2.5°C (NOAA CPC). CPC gives a 79% chance that December to February holds at or above +2.0°C on its relative index, falling to 35% for January to March. Its outlook keeps El Niño at 100% through January to March 2027, 80% in March to May and 38% in April to June, when ENSO-neutral becomes the most likely state (61%). On 21 October the WMO said its seasonal update forecast that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may rise to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027 (WMO and OCHA, 21 October 2026).

Geography of the Forecast

For December to February, the Copernicus C3S multi-model forecast issued in November, as read by PRISM, gives above-normal rainfall odds of 66% in the parts of Ethiopia with a December to February rainy season, 63% in Uganda and 52% in Kenya, and below-normal odds of 56% in Zimbabwe, 53% in Malawi, 52% in Zambia, 52% in Madagascar and 51% in Mozambique, against 33% for each tercile in a normal year. According to CHIRPS rainfall in PRISM's drought watch, in the 3 months to 31 October 13 of Somalia's 18 regions received more than 130% of their long-term average, with a median of 149%, while 4 of Sudan's 15 assessed states and 2 of Ethiopia's 11 regions received less than 70%, and a further 10 and 6 received 70% to 90%. Most first-level areas of Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi were outside their rainy season between August and October.

Floods and Drought in Eastern Africa

Somalia

The Deyr rains started early in October. FAO SWALIM reported 200 to 500 mm over Hiraan, Galgaduud and the Gode-Kelafo area of Ethiopia between 1 and 24 October (FAO SWALIM, 26 October 2026), and the Shabelle at Jowhar crossed its high flood-risk level on 13 October at 5.37 m (FAO SWALIM, 13 October 2026). Belet Weyne peaked at 6.72 m on 29 October and Bulo Burti at 5.88 m on 30 October (FAO SWALIM, 4 November 2026); by 11 November both rivers were falling, and Belet Weyne had dropped from 4.76 m on 4 November to 3.28 m; satellite estimates showed less than 25% of normal rainfall over most of southern and central Somalia for 1 to 9 November (FAO SWALIM, 11 November 2026). OCHA's regional office counted nearly 170,000 people affected in October, more than 2,400 shelters destroyed and nearly 5,900 damaged, and puts the number who could be affected by flooding between October and December at up to 3.4 million (OCHA ROSEA, 12 November 2026); OCHA Somalia's own count is at least 175,000. IOM and the Danish Refugee Council project that 874,319 people could be displaced between October and December, 92% of them by floods (IOM, 21 October 2026). FEWS NET reported at the end of October that riverine and flash flooding had been substantially lower than expected (FEWS NET Somalia).

Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti

In Kenya the short rains started slightly late across much of the east and were not fully established by the end of October (FEWS NET Kenya). By 11 November rains and floods had affected nearly 5,000 families and displaced more than 2,500, most of them in Tana River County, and 2 children had died in Kajiado County, according to Kenya Red Cross figures carried by OCHA. In Ethiopia, FEWS NET ranks October among the wettest on record in many south-eastern areas, after a kiremt season that was the driest on record in many areas (FEWS NET Ethiopia). The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission has prioritised 291 woredas in 10 regions and Dire Dawa; more than 3.5 million people in Amhara, including 317,000 internally displaced people, require assistance, and an estimated 3.9 million in Tigray require emergency food assistance (OCHA ROSEA). The Djibouti Red Crescent activated its flood early action protocol when forecast rainfall for 13 to 20 October reached 50 mm, with CHF 77,990 to assist 2,500 people (IFRC).

South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda

OCHA reports government estimates that more than 4 million people in South Sudan were affected by failed rains in 2026 (OCHA South Sudan, 30 October 2026); UNICEF estimates that nearly 6,600 people were displaced by crop losses in Kauto Payam, Kapoeta East, and partners project that about 85,000 people in the Eastern Corridor could need water trucking by January 2027 (OCHA ROSEA). In Sudan, an IPC alert of 12 October found El Niño-induced drought conditions across more than half of the country (IPC, 12 October 2026). In Uganda, the IPC puts 3.6 million people in Phase 3 or above between July 2026 and January 2027, across the refugee, host community, selected district and Karamoja analyses (IPC Uganda).

Health

The Somali Red Crescent activated its cholera early action protocol on 11 October after the Puntland Ministry of Health confirmed cholera in samples from Mudug; 307 acute watery diarrhoea cases had been reported across 17 locations by epidemiological week 42 (IFRC). In Galkacyo, a joint assessment found 37,140 people in need of immediate humanitarian assistance after the floods (WHO, 4 November 2026). On 30 October FAO and IGAD assessed Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda as facing the highest risk of Rift Valley fever (FAO and IGAD).

Rainfall Onset in Southern Africa

According to FEWS NET's seasonal monitor, many areas of Southern Africa had not received an effective rainfall onset by the first dekad of October (FEWS NET Seasonal Monitor). In Malawi, Mulanje Boma recorded 142.2 mm in 24 hours on 30 September, and on 5 October the meteorological service called it a false onset and advised against planting (The Nation, 6 October 2026); FEWS NET reported that planting had yet to start across the country (FEWS NET Malawi). In Zimbabwe agricultural authorities discouraged planting after brief October rains, and lean-season food assistance from the government or partners had not started (FEWS NET Zimbabwe). In Mozambique most households were waiting for the effective onset in November before planting (FEWS NET Mozambique). Madagascar's season began early in August with above-average rainfall in the south and centre (FEWS NET Madagascar). GEOGLAM's crop monitor of 5 November reports 50% to 80% chances of below-normal rainfall from November 2026 to March 2027 (GEOGLAM).

According to FEWS NET, Lake Kariba stood at 35.78% of usable storage on 19 October (FEWS NET), and Zimbabwe's dams averaged 83% full in late October (FEWS NET Zimbabwe). Météo-France La Réunion forecasts 6 to 10 storms in the South-West Indian Ocean and a reduced risk of impact for Madagascar and Mozambique (Météo-France La Réunion, 28 October 2026).

Food Security and Nutrition

FEWS NET rates its level of concern for El Niño-related acute food insecurity as high in Southern Africa and in unimodal East Africa (Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and Karamoja in Uganda), and as moderate to high in bimodal East Africa (southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia) (FEWS NET special report, October 2026). In Southern Africa it identifies Zimbabwe, south-central Mozambique, southern Malawi and southern Zambia as the areas with a consistent El Niño teleconnection (FEWS NET El Niño 2026-2027).

In Somalia, the IPC projects 5.4 million people in Phase 3 or above between October and December, 1.5 million of them in Phase 4, with a risk of famine among displaced people in Baidoa (OCHA Somalia, September 2026); FEWS NET assesses a credible risk of Famine in southern Somalia if extreme, widespread flooding develops before the Deyr season ends (FEWS NET Somalia). In Sudan, the IPC alert reports acute malnutrition of 38% and 30.8% in 2 camps in East Jebel Marra (IPC), and Save the Children found 57% of children assessed in Central Jebel Marra chronically malnourished and 15% acutely malnourished (Save the Children, 28 October 2026). In Kenya, the IPC counts 2.7 million people in Phase 3 or above in the arid and semi-arid counties for July to October and projects 2.1 million for November to January (IPC Kenya).

For the Southern lean season, the IPC projects 1.84 million people in Phase 3 or above in Mozambique from October 2026 to March 2027, with 254,000 in Phase 4 (IPC Mozambique), 2.6 million in Malawi (IPC Malawi) and more than 1.2 million in Zambia (IPC Zambia). WFP reports the IPC projection for Madagascar as 3.72 million people in Phase 3 or above from October to February, including nearly 426,000 in Phase 4 (WFP Madagascar). SADC puts the number of people projected to experience food insecurity across the region in the 2026-27 consumption period at about 53 million (SADC).

Humanitarian Response

In Somalia, the Emergency Relief Coordinator endorsed the flood anticipatory action plan on 3 October with US$7 million from CERF (OCHA Somalia); on 15 October flood forecasts for all four Juba monitoring stations exceeded their thresholds and the CERF Secretariat approved the release (OCHA Somalia), complemented by US$2 million from the Somalia Humanitarian Fund. According to OCHA's flash update of 12 November, partners had disbursed multipurpose cash to more than 20,000 families in flood-prone areas including Belet Weyne (OCHA ROSEA). OCHA records that Ethiopia had US$75,000 in pre-arranged flood financing against similar rainfall forecasts, and that South Sudan, Tanzania and Rwanda had none (OCHA ROSEA). On 29 September the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, Tom Fletcher, released US$6 million from CERF for early action on drought in South Sudan and US$4 million for anticipatory action in Zimbabwe (UN News); PRISM's ledger of CERF allocations on HDX records a further US$5.7 million of drought anticipatory action in Madagascar dated 23 and 24 September. The European Commission added €13.5 million on 6 November (European Commission).

In Malawi, the government's El Niño preparedness plan requires US$281.7 million, with US$187.3 million unfunded (UN Malawi, 5 October 2026); Mozambique's contingency plan carries a 16.4 billion meticais gap on 39.8 billion (Government of Mozambique, 4 November 2026); and WFP has reduced its planned response in Malawi from 600,000 to 400,000 people for lack of funding (WFP Malawi). In September the inter-agency Global ENSO Analysis Cell reported that the Southern Africa regional tracker recorded 84 planned actions for 11.9 million people costing US$111.3 million, around 80% of them unfunded (Global ENSO Analysis Cell). Uganda's joint appeal records US$11.1 million available against US$61.3 million required (UN Uganda).

Country Context

PRISM tracks the 13 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa. The table gives, for each country, the Copernicus odds of below-normal and above-normal rainfall for December to February, observed rainfall for August to October as a share of the long-term average, the funding coverage of its 2026 OCHA-coordinated plan and the anticipatory or early action recorded since 3 September.

"We are already witnessing extreme weather events and expect this to multiply and cascade as El Niño intensifies. But a powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster; we have the science forecasts, the early warnings to save lives and protect livelihoods."

— Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization, 21 October 2026