displaced inside Blue Nile between 11 January and 23 August 2026, a 66% rise on the count of 21 May. The state's displaced population stood at 370,745 on 4 July, and 230,572 people had returned to it by 30 July. SAF positions in two localities were reported lost at the end of August.
The UK Home Office's country policy and information note of September 2026 places Sudan's active fighting in Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile. Blue Nile, between Sennar, Ethiopia and South Sudan, is the smallest of the three fronts, and in August 2026 it moved. On 28 August the Rapid Support Forces and allied SPLM-N al-Hilu forces launched simultaneous attacks against Sudanese Armed Forces positions at Bakori in Geisan locality and Surkum in Al Kurmuk locality, according to reports the Protection Cluster relays, and control of both positions was reported to have changed. By 30 August IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix had counted more than 23,000 people leaving Geisan and Al Kurmuk since 11 August under the RSF and SPLM-N offensive, and the Khor Tamat bridge on the route from the Bakori area to Ed Damazin, 100 to 120 km to the east, was destroyed on 18 August.
This piece reads Blue Nile locality by locality through 4 records: the Protection Cluster's Protection Risks Severity Classification of June 2026, DTM's fourth Blue Nile flash alert of 13 September, the IPC analysis of 14 May as PRISM holds it, and the ACAPS Protection Risks Monitor as PRISM's archive preserves it, 319 records tagged to the state since 2022, alongside 4 entries of PRISM's own. The classification places Al Kurmuk among the 12 most severe localities in Sudan, with 13 of the 15 protection risks at Phase 4. The other 6 localities rank between 81st and 150th, which is where the state's 370,745 displaced people and 230,572 returnees live.
Each figure below carries its source and date. Where two records measure the same thing on different bases, both are given: DTM counts 230,572 returnees in the state at 30 July, while the Protection Cluster's alert gives approximately 209,773 Sudanese returnees from South Sudan, one component of that total.
Blue Nile's protection severity is concentrated in one locality. Al Kurmuk scores 116 on the Protection Cluster's weighted scale, 9th of 188 localities in Sudan and the only locality outside Darfur and Kordofan in the top 10, while its 6 neighbours score between 59 and 77. The RSF and SPLM-N offensive of August moved the fighting from Al Kurmuk, which the RSF took in March and the army retook on 8 July, to Geisan, whose classification carries 2 risks at Phase 5, child separation and child marriage, and from which, with Al Kurmuk, more than 23,000 people were displaced between 11 and 30 August.
Displacement figures are IOM DTM's, from Update 004 (reporting period 11 January to 23 August 2026, published 13 September). The Protection Cluster's severity classification scores 15 risks per locality on a 1 to 5 scale, weights them, and normalises the weighted score to 1 to 5; the June 2026 round covers April to June. IPC phases come from the 14 May 2026 analysis as read from PRISM on 14 September. National funding, INFORM, severity and aid worker security figures are PRISM's production reads, dated on each chart. Where a source names the actor behind an act, this piece names it; where it does not, none is attributed.
The sequence the Protection Cluster's alert of 2 September sets out runs from 11 August. That day RSF fighters with SPLM-N (al-Hilu faction) forces launched a heavy assault on Geisan town, reaching the main market, where they looted shops and opened fire on civilians, according to a PRISM archive entry citing Sudan Tribune; the Geisan County administration said the attack targeted farmers working their fields during the planting season. DTM's timeline records about 2,500 people leaving Geisan town on 11 August, an estimated 5,355 from the town and surrounding villages between 12 and 15 August, a further 8,935 between 12 and 17 August, and an additional 12,470 between 16 and 18 August from 12 villages, with households moving towards Ar Rusayris and Wad Al Mahi; the periods overlap, and the Protection Cluster's alert, which draws its figures from DTM, gives 12,470 for 11 to 18 August as a whole. On 18 August the Khor Tamat bridge was destroyed, cutting Amoura, Bakori and the wider Geisan area from Ed Damazin; the alert reports that the loss cut Bakori and Amoura off from markets, hospitals, assistance and ambulances, and names no actor. An ACAPS record citing sudanwarmonitor carries a statement by the RSF-aligned "Government of Peace" accusing the army and allied Islamic Movement brigades of destroying it, an accusation no source in this piece independently confirms.
On 28 August the RSF and allied SPLM-N al-Hilu forces attacked SAF positions at Bakori and at Surkum simultaneously. DTM counted a further 11,000 people (2,200 households) displaced from Amurdello, Abu Sheneina, Al Madinah 11 and Raba villages in Geisan between 28 and 30 August, which the alert adds to the earlier caseload for a cumulative figure of more than 23,000 displaced from Geisan and Al Kurmuk since 11 August. The alert notes that the reported change of territorial control in Bakori and Surkum prompted heightened security concern and movement restrictions on humanitarian actors, that access remains open in places and is increasingly constrained, and that further ground engagements, counteroffensives and drone activity remain possible.
Al Kurmuk's fighting preceded Geisan's. An ACAPS record citing Insecurity Insight states that on 25 March 2026 (a UNICEF and WHO record in the same set dates the attack on Kurmuk Teaching Hospital to 24 March) the RSF raided and looted a hospital and a pharmacy in Al Kurmuk town after taking control of the city; staff and patients were forced out and at least one health worker was critically injured. The army retook the town on 8 July. On 9 August, a PRISM entry citing Sudan Tribune states, army forces discovered mass graves in the north-east of Kurmuk town containing the bodies of 25 civilians, including women, children and hospital staff; the locality commissioner, Abdel Aty Mohamed al-Faki, told the paper the victims had been executed near Jebel Fankat during the RSF's occupation, an attribution the report carries from him and no source in this piece confirms independently. By late August, a further PRISM entry citing Sudan Tribune records, the RSF and SPLM-N coalition had seized the border towns again.
DTM's fourth Blue Nile flash alert counts 99,277 people (19,497 households) displaced within Blue Nile since the escalation of 11 January, up 66% from 59,742 on 21 May, across 53 locations in all 7 localities. Origin is concentrated: 40% of those displaced came from Geisan (39,570), 33% from Al Kurmuk (32,515) and 27% from Baw (27,192). Destination is concentrated too. Ed Damazin, the state capital, took 46% (45,740), followed by Geisan itself (16%), Baw (13%), Wad Al Mahi (12%) and Ar Rusayris (11%). Al Kurmuk received 1%.
Three changes stand out in the table. Wad Al Mahi's caseload rose from 400 to 11,685 as households from Geisan moved east, so 97% of the people recorded there in August had arrived since May; Ar Rusayris more than doubled, from 4,935 to 11,060; and Baw fell from 15,917 to 12,687, which DTM reads as people who had first sheltered in Baw moving on.
61% of the newly displaced were recorded in rural locations, and 58% at informal gathering sites, with 33% in host families and 9% in schools and other public buildings. Women and girls are 56% of the caseload; children under 18 are 47%.
| Locality of displacement | IDPs, 21 May | IDPs, 23 Aug | Households, Aug | Locations | Change in people |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Damazin | 31,035 | 45,740 | 9,148 | 13 | +14,705 |
| Geisan | 6,335 | 15,735 | 3,147 | 9 | +9,400 |
| Baw | 15,917 | 12,687 | 2,539 | 8 | -3,230 |
| Wad Al Mahi | 400 | 11,685 | 1,977 | 8 | +11,285 |
| Ar Rusayris | 4,935 | 11,060 | 2,212 | 10 | +6,125 |
| Al Kurmuk | 135 | 1,385 | 277 | 4 | +1,250 |
| At Tadamon | 985 | 985 | 197 | 1 | no change |
| Blue Nile | 59,742 | 99,277 | 19,497 | 53 | +39,535 (+66%) |
Chart unavailable. Ed Damazin 31,035 to 45,740; Geisan 6,335 to 15,735; Baw 15,917 to 12,687; Wad Al Mahi 400 to 11,685; Ar Rusayris 4,935 to 11,060; Al Kurmuk 135 to 1,385; At Tadamon 985 to 985.
The Sudan Protection Cluster's Protection Risks Severity Classification scores each of Sudan's 188 localities on the 15 protection risks of the Global Protection Cluster's Protection Analytical Framework, from consolidated protection monitoring, partner reporting and expert judgment. Each risk takes a phase from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high); the phases are weighted (3 for discrimination and denial of services, gender-based violence, theft and eviction, and movement restrictions; 2 for abduction, attacks on civilians, family separation, child recruitment, explosive ordnance, torture and trafficking; 1 for the rest) and the weighted score is normalised to a single 1 to 5 severity. Nationally the June round leaves 12 localities at 5, 45 at 4, 89 at 3, 41 at 2 and 1 at 1.
Al Kurmuk's weighted score of 116 places it 9th of the 188 localities the June release scores, behind Al Fasher (138), Al Khiwai, Kadugli, the two Nyala localities, Dilling, Bara and Gharb Bara, and ahead of Kernoi. It is the only locality outside Darfur and Kordofan in the top 10. 13 of its 15 risks sit at Phase 4, with torture and trafficking at 3; no locality in the state has a broader profile. The rest of Blue Nile scores between 59 (Ar Rusayris, severity 2, ranked 150th) and 77 (Geisan, severity 3, ranked 81st), which puts the state's mean of 3.14 7th among the 18 states, below the 6 Darfur and Kordofan states that lead the table and above East Darfur, South Kordofan and Khartoum.
North Darfur
West Kordofan
South Kordofan
South Darfur
South Kordofan
North Kordofan
South Darfur
North Kordofan
Blue Nile
North Darfur
The risk-by-risk table is where the state's differences show. Geisan carries 2 risks at Phase 5, child and forced family separation and child, early or forced marriage, and explosive ordnance at 4. Baw's explosive ordnance sits at 5, the highest in the state, with family separation and child recruitment at 4. Wad Al Mahi, which absorbed 11,685 of the newly displaced, scores 4 on family separation, child marriage and gender-based violence. Ed Damazin, which absorbed 45,740, scores 5 on child recruitment and 4 on family separation. Ar Rusayris has the lowest weighted score in the state, with no risk above Phase 3.
| Protection risk | Al Kurmukscore 116 · rank 9 | Geisanscore 77 · rank 81 | Bawscore 76 · rank 84 | Wad Al Mahiscore 74 · rank 97 | At Tadamonscore 71 · rank 103 | Ed Damazinscore 69 · rank 109 | Ar Rusayrisscore 59 · rank 150 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family separationR03 · weight 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Child marriageR04 · weight 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Child recruitmentR07 · weight 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Gender-based violenceR08 · weight 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Explosive ordnanceR10 · weight 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Abduction, detentionR01 · weight 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Attacks on civiliansR02 · weight 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Discrimination, denial of servicesR05 · weight 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| DisinformationR06 · weight 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Legal identity, justiceR09 · weight 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Psychological abuseR11 · weight 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Theft, extortion, evictionR12 · weight 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Movement, siege, forced displacementR15 · weight 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Torture, ill-treatmentR13 · weight 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trafficking, forced labourR14 · weight 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Overall severitynormalised from the weighted score | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
The June round scores April to June, before the RSF and SPLM-N offensive of August, when the fighting was in Al Kurmuk; the Q3 round, covering July to September, will be the first to score Geisan, Bakori and Wad Al Mahi after it. The Cluster's own reading of the national picture names gender-based violence, discrimination, child recruitment, family separation, theft and eviction, movement restrictions and explosive ordnance as the 7 most consequential risks, and its GBV note says serious risks persist in Blue Nile alongside Khartoum and the states hosting large displaced populations.
As of 4 July 2026 DTM recorded 370,745 internally displaced people across Blue Nile's 7 localities, 71% of them displaced from elsewhere in the state and 21% from Khartoum, with Sennar and Aj Jazirah at 4% each. Ed Damazin held 39%, Baw 29%, Geisan 13%, Ar Rusayris 11% and Wad Al Mahi 5%; 67% were in rural locations, 58% with host families and 29% at gathering sites. Alongside them DTM counted 230,572 returnees across 6 localities at 30 July, 173,439 of them (75%) back from abroad and 57,133 from displacement inside Sudan; 85% returned to rural villages, 71% were recorded at collective centres rather than their own homes, and 97% cited improved security as the reason for returning.
The Protection Cluster's alert adds the returnee and refugee populations the same localities host: approximately 209,773 Sudanese returnees from South Sudan, some 19,765 newly arrived South Sudanese refugees, and an established population including approximately 12,000 Ethiopian refugees in Camp 6 in Wad Al Mahi. A joint Protection and Site Management Cluster assessment in May 2026 found severe overcrowding, inadequate shelter and WASH, lack of lighting and weak site-management arrangements across several displacement locations, with women and girls facing particular risks at latrines, bathing facilities and water points. The August arrivals joined those sites.
370,745 IDPs in 7 localities
Within Blue Nile 71% · from Khartoum 21% · Sennar 4% · Aj Jazirah 4%
Host families 58% · gathering sites 29% · schools and public buildings 7% · rented 5% · improvised 1%
230,572 returnees in 6 localities
From abroad 75% (173,439) · from internal displacement 25% (57,133)
To rural villages 85% · at collective centres 71% · own residence 23% · hosted 6%
The IPC analysis of 14 May 2026, as PRISM holds it, classifies Al Kurmuk in Phase 4 (Emergency), with 64,599 of its 99,383 analysed people, 65%, in Phase 3 or worse and 24,846 in Phase 4, projected to reach 75% in Phase 3 or worse in the lean season. The other 6 localities sit in Phase 3 (Crisis). Across the state, 390,460 of 923,430 analysed people, 42.3%, are in Phase 3 or worse and 82,833 in Phase 4. Nationally, the UK Home Office's country note reading of the same analysis puts 19.5M people (41%) in Phase 3 or worse, over 5 million in Phase 4 and 135,000 in Phase 5, with famine risk in 14 areas of North and South Darfur and South Kordofan; none of those 14 is in Blue Nile.
Chart unavailable. Phase 3 or worse: Al Kurmuk 65%, Baw 55%, At Tadamon 50%, Ed Damazin 40%, Wad Al Mahi 40%, Geisan 35%, Ar Rusayris 25%.
| Locality | IPC phase | Analysed population | Phase 3 or worse | Phase 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kurmuk | Phase 4 | 99,383 | 64,599 (65.0%) | 24,846 |
| Baw | Phase 3 | 147,153 | 80,934 (55.0%) | 14,715 |
| At Tadamon | Phase 3 | 32,300 | 16,150 (50.0%) | 3,230 |
| Wad Al Mahi | Phase 3 | 67,260 | 26,904 (40.0%) | 3,363 |
| Ed Damazin | Phase 3 | 316,367 | 126,547 (40.0%) | 31,637 |
| Geisan | Phase 3 | 100,836 | 35,293 (35.0%) | 5,042 |
| Ar Rusayris | Phase 3 | 160,131 | 40,033 (25.0%) | 0 |
DTM's Multi-Sector Needs Assessment of July and August 2026, run with displaced households across the state, describes household conditions behind those phases. 95% reported that the price of essential food and non-food goods had risen in the previous 30 days; 23% had borderline and 2% poor food consumption.
60% had needed healthcare in the previous 3 months, and among them the barriers were cost (49%), the medicine or treatment not being available (44%), the cost of transport to a facility (37%) and the lack of qualified staff (26%). 41% lacked sufficient drinking water for 1 to 2 days in the previous 4 weeks and 22% for 3 to 10 days; 64% of those who coped did so by buying water. 38% faced a barrier to humanitarian assistance, and of those 64% named lack of information, 43% the assistance not being available, 35% discrimination and 19% lack of documentation.
Three constraints run through the Protection Cluster's alert. The Khor Tamat bridge, destroyed on 18 August, carried the route from Amoura and Bakori to Ed Damazin, 100 to 120 km; in the rainy season, with flooding and ordnance on the alternatives, the alert reports its loss cutting communities off from markets, hospitals, assistance and ambulances. Blue Nile remains heavily contaminated with explosive ordnance from previous conflicts, and no survey or clearance has been possible since April 2023 because of access constraints, so displaced people moving along unfamiliar routes are the population most exposed. And the alert describes a humanitarian presence under constraint: security assessments now determine whether staff can travel, some activities have been disrupted, and where community-based structures carry protection monitoring and referrals, the alert warns they may have limited capacity to identify and safely respond to sensitive cases, including gender-based violence.
PRISM's copy of the Aid Worker Security Database holds 4 incidents in Blue Nile since 2015. 3 Sudanese Red Crescent volunteers were killed and 1 injured returning from Kurmuk in February 2015; a national NGO contractor was killed in the Geisan area in January 2023 by gunmen the government identified as SPLM-N, the actor the database records; 3 UN aid workers were killed in an aerial bombardment at Yabus, in Al Kurmuk locality, on 19 December 2024; and a UN aid worker was injured when a humanitarian truck was struck by a drone at Yabus on 4 February 2026. The database records the actor as unknown in both Yabus incidents.
For Sudan as a whole it holds 235 incidents since 2015, with 190 aid workers killed and 121 kidnapped; 2024 and 2025 are the two worst years since 2015, where PRISM's series begins, with 60 and 71 killed.
Chart unavailable. Incidents: 2023 44, 2024 66, 2025 63, 2026 15 to date. Killed: 2023 26, 2024 60, 2025 71, 2026 11.
Funding is the fourth constraint. On PRISM's read of OCHA FTS on 14 September, the Sudan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026 asks for $2.87bn for 33.7M people in need and 20.4M targeted, and has received $1.19bn, 41.4%. The Protection cluster's own line is smaller and worse covered: $239.7M required for 14.1M people in need, $89.8M received, 37.5%, against 53.3% for the whole of 2025 and 52.6% for 2024. The Cluster's national snapshot puts GBV need at 12.4M people with 2M targeted, and reports that 80 partners delivered about 3.2M protection interventions across 153 localities between January and May, against 22.4M people requiring protection assistance.
Chart unavailable. Plan 2026: 41.4% of $2.87bn. Protection 2026: 37.5% of $239.7M. Protection 2025: 53.3% of $275.8M.
PRISM's protection archive preserves the ACAPS Protection Risks Monitor beyond its rolling window and adds PRISM's own entries. Tagged to Blue Nile it holds 323 records: 319 from ACAPS and 4 PRISM-original, 57 from 2022, 142 from 2023, 83 from 2024, 10 from 2025 and 31 so far in 2026. Reporting on Blue Nile peaked in 2023, the war's first year, then thinned to 10 records in the whole of 2025. Of the 41 records since January 2025, 6 name Blue Nile alone; the other 35 are tagged to several states at once. Al Kurmuk moved from the middle of the range to severity 5 in a single classification round, the one covering the months after the RSF took the town in March.
The ACAPS records of 2026 that name the state alone: the RSF's looting of the hospital and pharmacy in Al Kurmuk on 25 March after taking the town; the arrest on 13 May of Hassan Hamid Hamad, a presenter of local-language programmes, by a security cell affiliated with the army in the state; the discovery of 25 bodies in Kurmuk on 9 August, with the commissioner's attribution to the RSF's occupation; the RSF and SPLM-N assault on Geisan on 11 August; the RSF-aligned "Government of Peace" statement accusing the army of destroying the Bakori bridge, which the archive dates 17 August, a day before the alert's date for the destruction; and IOM's count of 13,970 people fleeing Geisan and Kurmuk by 27 August under the RSF and SPLM-N offensive. By risk code, the records since 2025 lead with attacks on civilians (10), gender-based violence (7), movement restrictions and forced displacement (6) and abduction and detention (6). Attacks, movement restrictions, abduction and GBV are 4 of the 13 risks the Cluster scores at Phase 4 in Al Kurmuk.
Sudan is tracked live on PRISM: INFORM Risk 7.8, ACAPS severity 9.5, plan funding, IPC by locality, aid worker security and the protection archive, updated from source. The register behind this piece is at Protection in Focus.
The June classification scores Geisan at severity 3 with 2 Phase 5 child risks; the RSF and SPLM-N offensive, the bridge and 17,410 more people recorded in Wad Al Mahi and Ar Rusayris than in May belong in an interim update, so that Geisan, Wad Al Mahi and Ar Rusayris are resourced for the risks they have carried since August.
No survey or clearance since April 2023, Baw at Phase 5 and Geisan and Al Kurmuk at Phase 4 on ordnance, and 61% of the newly displaced in rural locations along unfamiliar routes. Nationally, partners cleared 7.6 km² and reached 936,000 people with risk education in the first half of 2026 on the Cluster's count; the alert's call to coordinate with mine action actors needs a Blue Nile allocation behind it.
58% of the newly displaced are at informal gathering sites that the May joint assessment already found overcrowded, unlit and short of WASH. With the Protection cluster at 37.5% of its national requirement, lighting, latrines and site management in Ed Damazin, Wad Al Mahi and Ar Rusayris are the cheapest GBV prevention available.
Monitoring partners recorded 10 entries on Blue Nile in 2025, for a state holding more than 370,000 displaced people. The Cluster's protection monitoring tool and partner 5Ws need Blue Nile rows, and PRISM's register stays open to field entries for the state.
- September to October 2026
DTM Focused Flash Alert Update 005 for Blue Nile, the first to cover the 28 August attacks and the end-August displacement from Geisan in full.
IOM DTM Sudan - Q3 2026 round
The Protection Cluster's severity classification for July to September, the first round that can register Geisan, Bakori and Wad Al Mahi after the RSF and SPLM-N offensive.
Sudan Protection Cluster - Rainy season, to October
Flooding on the alternatives to the Khor Tamat crossing, and whether Bakori and Amoura regain a route to Ed Damazin for ambulances and assistance.
Protection Cluster alert; PRISM GDACS archive - Next IPC analysis
Whether Al Kurmuk's projected 75% in Phase 3 or worse materialises, and whether Geisan and Wad Al Mahi move from Phase 3 with the new caseload.
IPC via PRISM - Continuous
Camp 6 in Wad Al Mahi and the 19,765 newly arrived South Sudanese refugees: any movement of the front towards Wad Al Mahi puts refugee settlements inside the fighting that the alert asks all parties to keep them out of.
Sudan Protection Cluster
- Protection Cluster Alert: Blue Nile, escalating hostilities and humanitarian access constraints (2 September 2026)
- DTM Focused Flash Alert: Blue Nile State, Update 004 (13 September 2026)
- Sudan Protection Risks Classification storymap (Sudan Protection Cluster, June 2026 round, dataset downloadable from the storymap)
- Country policy and information note: humanitarian situation, Sudan (UK Home Office, 7 September 2026), the national frame this piece uses for people in need, reach and the IPC headline