Flood Displacement Outlook for Somalia

According to FAO SWALIM, 29 rain stations with a long-term record had reached or exceeded their October normal by 19 October, three weeks into the Deyr season: Baidoa had recorded 377.5 mm, 279% of the month’s normal, Galkacyo 230.5 mm (484%) and Caynabo 150.0 mm (703%). The Shabelle at Jowhar crossed its moderate flood-risk level on 12 October and its high flood-risk level on 13 October, per SWALIM’s bulletin of 16 October, and on 22 October a new rise stood at Belet Weyne, 0.62 m below its moderate level. The rains come under El Niño: NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index, read by PRISM on 23 October, stood at +2.16°C for July to September 2026, above the +1.99°C peak of the 2023 to 2024 episode, and the October outlook of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives El Niño a 100% probability through January to March 2027. WFP’s October seasonal outlook names central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia and Kenya as the areas with the strongest signal for above-normal rainfall from October to December.

IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix and the Danish Refugee Council’s Foresight team project that 874,319 people will be displaced between 1 October and 31 December 2026, 92% by floods, 7% by conflict and 1% by drought. Belet Weyne district is projected to receive 229,054 people, almost all from within the district, a 286% increase on the 80,003 internally displaced people already there, followed by Gaalkacyo (82,588), Baardheere (73,476), Luuq (48,805) and Saakow (45,714). Callers to Radio Ergo reported floods in Jowhar, El-dhere, Baidoa and Bardera between 8 and 14 October, and a caller in Habre, Baidoa district, reported 2 deaths and livestock losses after heavy rain; IOM reported on 21 October that rain in Baidoa had damaged homes and forced families to leave several neighbourhoods. AER FloodScan data processed by the OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data depict 7.25% of Sool region as flooded on 21 October, up from 0.07% the day before, a return period above 10 years. In Baidoa, armed clashes between forces associated with the former Southwest State administration and the Somali National Army displaced an estimated 5,604 people between 28 September and 3 October, according to UNHCR.

The Emergency Relief Coordinator endorsed OCHA’s anticipatory action plan for riverine floods on 3 October: US$7 million in pre-arranged CERF funding and US$1 million from the Somalia Humanitarian Fund, released when GloFAS forecasts river flows above agreed thresholds on the Juba or Shabelle, for 7 high-risk and 7 medium-risk districts. The Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026 had received US$291.2 million of its US$852 million requirement, 34.2%, according to OCHA FTS as read by PRISM on 23 October, and IOM had secured about 14.4% of the US$16.62 million it needs for El Niño flooding. OCHA’s regional office estimates 2.5 to 3.5 million people at risk in Somalia and lists a finalised contingency plan requiring US$200 million. The Logistics Cluster had delivered more than 560 of the 633 tonnes of pre-positioned cargo requested by 13 October, per its meeting minutes.

Chronology of the Deyr Season

The 14 events below run from the pre-approval of anticipatory action funding in June to the river readings of 22 October 2026. Markers are evenly spaced; the curve behind the strip is FloodScan’s flooded share of Somalia on each event’s date, from 26 September. Select a marker to read the event.

Geography of Flood Risk

The anticipatory action plan covers riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle, where floods follow above-average rain in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Across 50 flood-exposed districts in 16 regions, the plan expects 3.4 million people, 27% of the population of those districts, to be affected, and prioritises 14: Belet Weyne, Jowhar, Kismayo, Afmadow, Buale, Baardheere and Balcad at high risk, and Afgooye, Dollow, Garbaharey, Luuq, Wanlaweyn, Bulo Burto and Jalalaqsi at medium risk. Of the 15 districts with the largest projected displacement from IOM DTM and DRC, 10 are among these 14; Gaalkacyo, Saakow, Baidoa, Banadir and Ceel Waaq are outside them. FloodScan’s reading for 21 October places the largest flooded shares away from the two rivers: 16.7% of Laas Caanood district and 7.25% of Sool region, both below 0.1% on 20 October, after Las Anod recorded 161.5 mm between 13 and 19 October, per SWALIM.

Rainfall and River Levels

According to FAO SWALIM’s bulletin of 22 October, heavy rain continued over Bay, Hiraan, Sool, Togdheer, Mudug and Middle Shabelle between 13 and 19 October: Mataban recorded 221.9 mm in 4 days, Laan Madow 221.6 mm, Las Anod 161.5 mm, Baidoa 157.5 mm and Caynabo 149.0 mm, and satellite estimates (IMERG, 14 to 20 October) show 40 to 80 mm over Tayeeglow, Xudur, Jalalaqsi and Ceel Buur districts, where no gauges reported. Burao (6% of its October normal), Qardho (16%) and Bandarbeyla (20%) remained far below normal, and callers reported continuing drought in Sheikh and Dadmaren in Togdheer, in Bari and in Bur-Salah in Mudug. CHIRPS estimates read by PRISM through HDX HAPI put national rainfall at 198% of the long-term average from 11 September to 10 October and 141% from 11 July to 10 October.

On the Shabelle, Jowhar crossed its moderate flood-risk level on 12 October and its high level on 13 October and stood at 5.36 m on 16 October, 14 cm below bankfull, when SWALIM expected breakage flooding between Jowhar and Balcad to continue and the CHIRPS-GEFS forecast gave 100 to 150 mm over Bulo Burto, Jalalaqsi and Jowhar districts for 14 to 24 October. The 22 October bulletin records Jowhar below its moderate level on 17 October, briefly above it on 19 October at 5.07 m and at 4.39 m on 22 October, while a new rise moved down the river: Deefow rose 2.08 m and Belet Weyne 1.48 m in the week. On the Juba, Dollow peaked 4 cm below its moderate level on 12 October, and levels were falling on 22 October. In 2023, when the Deyr floods submerged about 90% of Beledweyne town, the anticipatory action plan records more than 2.4 million people affected, about 110 deaths and 1.1 million people displaced across 36 districts.

FloodScan depicts 0.76% of Somalia’s land area as flooded on 21 October, against 0.27% on 20 October and 0.30% on 19 October, the highest value since the series in the HDX extract begins on 26 July. The rise on 21 October comes from Sool region, which read 0.07% on 20 October and 7.25% on 21 October (return period above 10 years); Lower Shabelle reads 1.38%, Nugaal 1.10% and Mudug 1.04% (above 10 years). Along the Shabelle, the flooded share of Wanla Weyn district reached 8.25% during October and stood at 2.70% on 21 October, within the range expected for the date.

Displacement Outlook

The IOM DTM and DRC projections rest on a Deyr outlook giving a probability above 90% of above-normal rainfall, with more than 400 mm likely in parts of central and southern Somalia, and on the harmonised 2025 IDP baseline, ETT assessments, the 2026 response plan, ICPAC, FAO SWALIM, ACLED and PSMN data. DTM and DRC expect displacement to peak during the height of flooding and decline as people return, as after the 2023 El Niño floods. In Belet Weyne, 228,809 of the 229,054 projected arrivals are attributed to floods; Saakow’s IDP caseload is projected to rise from 9,114 to 54,828, a 502% increase. Of the 15 districts, 6 are among the 20 priority districts of the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, together accounting for 398,810 projected arrivals, and 12 fall within the operational footprint of the Area-Based Coordination and Operational Cell. Conflict displacement is projected mainly in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Bay and Bari.

The districts with the largest projections already hold large displaced populations. According to the DTM factsheet, citing OCHA’s harmonised baseline of September 2025, the CCCM IDP master list and UNHCR PRMN, Gaalkacyo hosts 121,596 IDPs across 105 sites, Baardheere 85,044 across 56, Beletweyne 80,003 across 75, Luuq 61,473 across 40 and Saakow 9,114. In CCCM sites assessed between 1 July and 31 August 2026, every site in Beletweyne, Gaalkacyo and Luuq reported inadequate latrine coverage; every site in Gaalkacyo and Luuq and 89% in Beletweyne fell below the minimum of 15 litres of water per person per day; and every assessed site in Gaalkacyo reported no accessible and functional health service. IOM’s biometric registration recorded 256 recent arrivals in Baardheere, Luuq and Beletweyne in July and August, 181 of them children and 58 women; drought caused all of the arrivals in Luuq and Beletweyne and 73% in Baardheere.

IDMC figures preserved by PRISM record 1,151,659 new disaster displacements in Somalia in 2022, 2,043,426 in 2023, the year of the last El Niño floods, 156,302 in 2024 and 335,430 in 2025; conflict and violence caused 213,669 new displacements in 2025, and 3,347,408 people were living in displacement because of conflict at the end of that year. The HDX HAPI baseline from IOM DTM’s countrywide monitoring counts 3,262,080 IDPs in September 2024, per HDX HAPI. NRC reported that PSMN recorded 774,923 displacements between January and 11 September 2026 (PRISM-0633).

Protection of Civilians

Between 28 September and 3 October, armed clashes between forces associated with the former Southwest State administration and the Somali National Army over control of Baidoa, with reported airstrikes, displaced about 934 households, an estimated 5,604 people, from the Wadajir and Berdale neighbourhoods, according to UNHCR; women and children made up about 81% of them, and Bay Regional Hospital and Bayhaw Hospital recorded 11 deaths and 86 injuries. MSF reported that the fighting of 28 September was the third in Baidoa since 17 August, that a health facility was severely damaged, a health worker killed and an ambulance looted, and that roads to the hospitals were blocked. The Somali NGO Consortium reported on 10 October that the latest fighting had displaced 1,800 more people, after 16,000 in August and early September. In Lower Shabelle, more than 1,700 families fled at least 25 villages to the outskirts of Janale between early September and 16 October to escape repeated airstrikes and ground fighting, according to Radio Ergo as published by Hiiraan Online. ACLED recorded 520 political violence events in Somalia in August 2026, above the 90th percentile of the previous 24 months, according to a PRISM alert.

Baidoa, where the Habre deaths and the September clashes were reported, falls outside the 14 riverine districts of the anticipatory action plan; in 2023, flash floods in Baidoa affected about 247,000 people across 384 informal settlements and damaged more than 1,000 communal latrines, per the plan. The plan cites the 2025 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment: 17% of households knew of sexual exploitation and abuse incidents in their area, 89% knew of no confidential reporting channel and 68% said they would not report an incident, and the Somalia SEA Joint Risk Assessment lists food distribution, cash assistance, livelihoods programming and recruitment among the activities at highest risk. In the CCCM sites assessed by DTM, 80% of sites in Gaalkacyo reported gaps in referral pathways, and every assessed site in Luuq and 95% in Gaalkacyo reported gaps in access to protection services.

Humanitarian Response

The anticipatory action plan, endorsed by the Emergency Relief Coordinator on 3 October, places US$7 million in pre-arranged CERF funding and US$1 million from the Somalia Humanitarian Fund behind riverine flood triggers for the Deyr and Gu seasons, with agencies’ own funds alongside, under the National Anticipatory Action Roadmap led by the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA). CERF funds are released on activation, 1 to 7 days before expected floods; a readiness phase 8 to 12 days ahead opens on a SWALIM moderate flood-risk alert or a GloFAS forecast, and SoDMA activates the national response on SWALIM alerts. The plan’s hindcast over 1999 to 2023 gives each seasonal trigger a return period of 6.5 years and the combined trigger 3.2 years, with Deyr activations in 2006, 2014, 2019 and 2023. CERF funding is pre-arranged from October 2026 to September 2028.

The Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026 counts 4,796,040 people in need and targets 2,430,751, per HDX HAPI, and had received US$291.2 million of US$852 million, 34.2%, according to OCHA FTS as read by PRISM on 23 October; OCHA’s regional office reported 32% on 9 October. IOM reported on 21 October that it had secured about 14.4% of the US$16.62 million it needs to prepare for and respond to El Niño flooding for more than 517,000 people, and that funding shortages limit safe relocation areas, shelter, water, sanitation and health care. Oxfam reported on 22 October that global funding for El Niño preparation and response stands at US$450 million, of which CERF has allocated up to US$100 million and disbursed US$20 million to 6 countries; the 2015 to 2016 El Niño appeal sought US$5 billion and raised nearly US$2 billion.

Country Context

NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index, read by PRISM, rose from -0.39°C in December to February 2026 to +2.16°C in July to September, a value above the peaks of the 1982 to 1983 episode (+2.14°C) and the 2023 to 2024 episode (+1.99°C) and below those of 1997 to 1998 (+2.37°C) and 2015 to 2016 (+2.59°C). The Climate Prediction Center’s October outlook gives El Niño a 100% probability from September to November through January to March 2027. OCHA’s regional office reports that partners warn of a credible risk of famine, particularly in southern Somalia, if flooding reaches 1997 or 2023 levels.

The floods follow a drought: the Federal Government declared a drought emergency in late November 2025, and OCHA counted 4.61 million people affected by December 2025, as cited by REACH. FSNAU’s early warning dashboard counted about 210 indicators in alarm phase in September 2026, against about 340 in March and April 2026 and about 365 in October 2025, with market indicators falling from about 180 to about 80 between May and September (values read from the chart). Somalia’s INFORM Risk score for 2026 is 8.2 of 10, class Very High, with a river flood hazard score of 7.8, and EM-DAT records 41 floods among 60 disasters in Somalia since 2000, read by PRISM. PRISM’s GDACS archive holds 75 alerts for Somalia since 2000, 70 green and 5 orange, the latest dated 26 April 2026. The IPC’s 2025 mid-year update classified 4.55 million people, 24% of those analysed, in Phase 3 or above.