According to ACLED's Open-tier monthly aggregates via HDX, as of 2 October 2026, Somalia recorded 520 political violence events in August 2026, with 581 reported fatalities. This figure is above 450.7, the 90th percentile of the country's monthly event counts over the previous 24 months. Lower Shabelle accounted for 182 of the August events, followed by Bay and Middle Shabelle with 51 each, Banadir with 44 and Lower Juba with 38. The same ACLED data records 63 events targeting civilians in August 2026, with 35 civilian fatalities.
| Rule | ACLED political violence events against the previous two years |
| Period | 2026-08 |
| Metric | pv_events |
| Value in the month | 520 |
| 90th percentile of that history | 450.7 |
| Months of history compared | 24 |
| Political violence events | 520 |
| Reported fatalities | 581 |
| Civilian targeting events | 63 |
| Civilians reported killed | 35 |
| Judged against | the 90th percentile of the country's own record over the previous 24 months, 450.7; at least 20 events or 10 civilians killed. Fired on: history_percentile. |
| Detected | 13 October 2026, run 19 |
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