According to ACLED's Open-tier monthly aggregates via HDX, as of 9 October 2026, Guatemala recorded 102 political violence events in September 2026, with 100 reported fatalities. Of these events, 84 involved civilian targeting, and 87 civilian fatalities were reported. The rule compared the September total against the country's own monthly record over the previous 24 months, where the 90th percentile stood at 86.2 events.
| Rule | ACLED political violence events against the previous two years |
| Period | 2026-09 |
| Metric | pv_events |
| Value in the month | 102 |
| 90th percentile of that history | 86.2 |
| Months of history compared | 24 |
| Political violence events | 102 |
| Reported fatalities | 100 |
| Civilian targeting events | 84 |
| Civilians reported killed | 87 |
| Judged against | the 90th percentile of the country's own record over the previous 24 months, 86.2; at least 20 events or 10 civilians killed. Fired on: history_percentile. |
| Detected | 16 October 2026, run 37 |