According to IDMC's Internal Displacement Updates, between 1 October and 31 October 2026 India recorded 116,028 disaster-driven internal displacements, all linked to a single event, Cyclones Arnab and Murasu, with displacement dated 29 October. The figure combines a state government count of 59,028 and a National Disaster Response Force count of 57,000 for that event. The alert fired because the total exceeded both the absolute floor of 50,000 and the 90th percentile of India's own monthly record over the previous 18 months, which stood at 113,836. Sphere India's update of 6 November 2026 places the cyclones in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Yanam. --- Note for reviewers (not part of the narrative): The source field says the data is "deduplicated to one figure per event." But the window figure of 116,028 equals the sum of 2 separate counts for the same event (59,028 + 57,000), from different reporting bodies on the same date. These may be overlapping estimates of the same displaced population. If so, a deduplicated figure would be about 59,028. That falls below the history threshold of 113,836, so only the absolute floor rule would have fired. It's worth checking the deduplication step before publishing.
| Rule | Displacement in a month against the country's own record |
| Period | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-31 |
| Displacement in the month | 116,028 |
| Events in the month | 1 |
| Months of history compared | 18 |
| 90th percentile of that history | 113,836 |
| Judged against | an absolute floor of 50,000; the 90th percentile of the country's own record, 113,836. Fired on: abs_floor, history_percentile. |
| Detected | 10 November 2026, run 63 |