According to the ACAPS INFORM Severity Index, 2026-10 release, the severity score for the Drought in Southern Madagascar crisis (MDG002) rose from 6.0 in September 2026 to 6.3 in October 2026, a change of 0.3. The crisis moved from category 3 to category 4 (High) over the same period. The alert compared the October 2026 score and category against the previous analysis for September 2026.
| Rule | INFORM Severity moving between releases |
| Period | 2026-10 |
| Crisis | Drought in Southern Madagascar |
| Index before | 6 |
| Index after | 6.3 |
| Change | 0.3 |
| Category before | 3 |
| Category after | 4 |
| Judged against | an index move of 0.3 or a category change. Fired on: index, category. |
| Detected | 30 October 2026, run 51 |