According to ACLED's open-tier monthly aggregates via HDX, as of 2 October 2026, Nigeria recorded 768 political violence events in August 2026, with 1,476 reported fatalities. The rule compared this figure against the 90th percentile of the country's previous 24 months, which stood at 709.4 events. Of the August events, 450 involved civilian targeting, with 485 civilian fatalities reported. Katsina recorded the highest number of events (125), followed by Sokoto and Plateau (78 each), Borno (76) and Zamfara (75).
| Rule | ACLED political violence events against the previous two years |
| Period | 2026-08 |
| Metric | pv_events |
| Value in the month | 768 |
| 90th percentile of that history | 709.4 |
| Months of history compared | 24 |
| Political violence events | 768 |
| Reported fatalities | 1,476 |
| Civilian targeting events | 450 |
| Civilians reported killed | 485 |
| Judged against | the 90th percentile of the country's own record over the previous 24 months, 709.4; at least 20 events or 10 civilians killed. Fired on: history_percentile. |
| Detected | 13 October 2026, run 19 |