Deep Dives & Analysis

Situation Update

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Middle East Situation Update #3

The regional crisis triggered by the 28 February 2026 US-Israeli military offensive against Iran has displaced an estimated 4.25 million people internally across Iran (3.2M) and Lebanon (1.05M+), while generating over 574,000 cross-border movements across nine countries. A two-week ceasefire was announced on 9 April, but the 8 April strikes in Lebanon — over 100 strikes within 10 minutes, killing 200+ — underscore continued volatility. IOM DTM Round 5 tracks 359,532 crossings from Lebanon to Syria, 141,538 from Iran to Afghanistan, and 88,600 to Turkiye. The Strait of Hormuz closure has driven oil prices up ~50%, with WFP warning 45 million additional people could face acute food insecurity globally. Flash appeals totalling $388M are critically underfunded: Iran at 8%, Lebanon at 14%.

2026-04-13

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From Iran to Gaza: Mapping the Humanitarian Shockwave of the US-Israeli War on Iran

Situation Update

Iran Palestine Lebanon

From Iran to Gaza: Mapping the Humanitarian Shockwave of the US-Israeli War on Iran

Since the launch of the US-Israeli war on Iran, 4,148,100 people have been internally displaced across the region. In Iran, 1,348 civilians have been killed and over 17,000 injured since the start of the attacks carried out by Israel and the US.

2026-03-15

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Situation Update

Iran

Middle East Situation Update #2

Operation Epic Fury, launched jointly by the United States and Israel on 28 February 2026, marks the largest military escalation in the Middle East since 2003. Over 2,000 strikes have been conducted against targets in Iran, while Iranian retaliatory missile and drone salvos have struck seven neighbouring states. By 6 March, the UN declared the crisis a “major humanitarian emergency” affecting regions hosting nearly 25 million refugees. Civilian casualties, mass displacement, and humanitarian supply-chain disruptions are escalating daily across a theatre spanning from Beirut to the Strait of Hormuz.

2026-03-09

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Situation Update

Lebanon

Lebanon reports over 83,000 displaced as hostilies with Israel intensify

A massive Israeli military escalation struck Lebanon beginning 2 March 2026, following a large-scale projectile barrage from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Strikes targeted command centres in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon, triggering mass civilian evacuations. By 4 March, Israel had launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon and issued forced evacuation orders for the entire region south of the Litani River. At least 83,000 people have been displaced, with over 12,000 families sheltering in 300+ collective sites — dozens already at full capacity. At least 72 people have been killed (including 7 children) and 437 wounded.

2026-03-05

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Situation Update

Iran

Middle East Situation Update #1

This analysis traces the full arc from the December protests through to 28 February 2026, examining Iran’s land, air, rail and maritime crossing infrastructure in its current conflict-disrupted state. It provides a systematic assessment of the migration management frameworks and border policies of each of Iran’s seven neighbouring states — a critical factor for determining how many people from Iran may be able to seek safety, through which corridors, and under what protection frameworks.

2026-02-28

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Situation Update

Palestine

Occupied Palestinian Territory Situation Update

This situation update consolidates data from OHCHR, OCHA FTS, the INFORM Risk Index, ACLED, Eurostat, the Gaza Protection Monitoring System, and West Bank protection analysis to provide a comprehensive picture of the crisis as of February 2026. The findings are uniformly severe: 13 out of 15 protection risk categories are at maximum severity, the conflict probability score is 10 out of 10, and the territory now has the highest number of amputee children per capita in the world.

2026-02-25

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Situation Update

Syria

Syria Floods Update

On 7–9 February 2026, heavy rainfall triggered extensive flooding across 21 IDP sites in Idleb and northern Lattakia governorates, directly affecting 5,300 displaced people in some of Syria’s most vulnerable communities (OCHA Flash Update No. 3).

2026-02-12

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Situation Update

Sudan

Sudan Situation Update

Sudan's war has now passed 1,000 days. What began as a power struggle between two generals in Khartoum in April 2023 has metastasised into the world's worst humanitarian crisis — surpassing Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan on virtually every severity metric. An estimated 33.7 million people need humanitarian assistance. Famine has been confirmed in multiple locations. The health system has collapsed. And the international response is falling catastrophically short.

2026-02-08

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Situation Update

Syria

Syria Situation Update

One year after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria is navigating the most consequential period in its modern history. The establishment of a Transitional Caretaker Administration in December 2024, followed by the appointment of Ahmed al-Sharaa as Interim President in January 2025, opened a window of cautious optimism — marked by a National Dialogue Conference, the lifting of EU and US sanctions, and the return of over one million refugees.

2026-02-07

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